[PBARC] Hazardous Weather Outlook

[egwolfjr at email.com]

Weather information brought to you by N5RN.

FLUS44 KLZK 311857
HWOLZK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1256 PM CST SUN OCT 31 2004

ARZ006-007-014>016-023>025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
011100-
ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
1256 PM CST SUN OCT 31 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. WARM AND HUMID
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER ARKANSAS. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE...INTERACTING WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DECREASING A BIT INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE REDEVELOPING DURING THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHES UP FROM LOUISIANA. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...AND A FEW COULD BRIEFLY
BECOME SEVERE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MAINLY EAST OF A
CAMDEN...TO BRINKLEY LINE. IF A STORM WERE TO BECOME SEVERE...THE
PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS AS WELL.

ALSO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS...AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. SOME
OF THE STORMS TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

..HEAVY RAINFALL...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE STATE. THE
INTERACTION OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXCEED 3 OR 4 INCHES IN PLACES...AND THIS COULD
CREATE FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS...AND RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS AND
STREAMS. AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION...AS FARM LANDS NEAR RIVER BANKS ARE LIKELY TO FLOOD.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO ARKANSAS FROM
OKLAHOMA.

..STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. THIS INCLUDES
AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM TEXARKANA TO JONESBORO. SOME STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DUE TO THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF WIND ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE WINDS TURNING IN
DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT...THERE IS THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAMDEN TO MCGEHEE.
AGAIN...ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA...USHERING IN COOLER
AND DRIER AIR. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THE SYSTEM...SO
NO CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. MANY AREAS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS HAVE RECEIVED 7
TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
WILL ONLY INUNDATE AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. MONITOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WATCH OR WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR
AREA.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT...AND MONDAY.

$$

73,
Glenn