[PBARC] Special Weather Statement

[pbarc@mailman.qth.net]

Weather information brought to you by N5RN.

WWUS84 KLZK 111236
SPSLIT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 AM CST WED FEB 11 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-
111600-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
625 AM CST WED FEB 11 2004

..WINTER WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT...
..A RAINY SCENARIO IN THE SOUTH...

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM THE GULF COAST REGION TODAY...
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE STATE. A COLD FRONT WILL HEAD INTO
ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS.

AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING...IT WAS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY
WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WOULD OCCUR. THERE WERE SEVERAL PIECES TO
THE PUZZLE TO CONSIDER. THE USUAL PIECES ARE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE...HOW MUCH LIFT WILL OCCUR TO KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING...
AND WILL THE AIR BE COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE PRECIPITATION FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN.

AS FAR AS MOISTURE...DATA THIS MORNING INDICATED THAT ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WOULD BEGIN PROGRESSING OUT OF ARKANSAS TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WAS IN THE FORECAST
EAST OF ARKANSAS...WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCHES POSTED. HOWEVER...
THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN ARKANSAS
BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASES.

LIFT WAS NOT A PROBLEM...WITH A STRONG JET PROGGED TO MOVE OVER
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST. ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE JET...LIFT WILL BE APPRECIABLE...WITH PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING AS LONG AS MOISTURE IS PRESENT.

AS FAR AS COLD AIR...IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARM FOR SNOW EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...DATA INDICATES THAT RAPID COOLING WILL TAKE
PLACE LATE IN THE EVENING AND TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND IT SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS.

IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOWFALL...WITH
SNOW INTENSITIES DECLINING DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY OUT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE AND
BATESVILLE...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS
OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
TOWARD CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

IN THE SOUTH...NO SNOW IS IN THE FORECAST AS COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE
AFTER THE MOISTURE HAS DECLINED. IT WILL BE A RAIN EVENT IN THE
SOUTH...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

GIVEN THE SCENARIO...A SNOW ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS
NORTHERN INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT. IN THE SOUTH...RAINFALL
RATES WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...WITH A POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

AGAIN...THIS IS A COMPLEX SITUATION. BECAUSE IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY
WHAT WILL HAPPEN...FORECAST CHANGES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR. FOR THIS
REASON...PEOPLE ACROSS ARKANSAS ARE ASKED TO CHECK FORECAST
INFORMATION FREQUENTLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

$$

46


73,
Glenn