[PBARC] Hazardous Weather Outlook

[pbarc@mailman.qth.net]

Weather information brought to you by N5RN.

FLUS44 KLZK 211040
HWOLIT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT WED APR 21 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-221000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT WED APR 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN 
ARKANSAS TONIGHT. 

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
ARKANSAS TONIGHT. 

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH 
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...AND WILL WEAKEN AS THEY PUSH INTO 
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE A LULL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE 
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP TONIGHT. 

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT A SYSTEM ALOFT WILL HEAD ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH A DRY 
LINE IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...OR A BOUNDARY SEPARATING MOIST AIR TO ITS 
EAST FROM MUCH DRIER AIR TO ITS WEST. THE INTERACTION WILL TRIGGER 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SEVERE STORMS LIKELY. 

STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL TRACK INTO 
WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT. STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE WILL PRODUCE 
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. 

THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST...AND WILL ARRIVE IN THE 
NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE 
ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER...THE FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR 
HEAVY RAINFALL. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR...WITH LOCALLY 
HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

THE REGION MOST PRONE TO SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT 
INCLUDES AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF MENA...MORRILTON AND HARDY. 

ELSEWHERE ACROSS ARKANSAS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED 
WITH LESS OF A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN. 
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY STILL OCCUR...WITH MAINLY LARGE 
HAIL POSSIBLE.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL EXIT THE STATE INTO MISSOURI 
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER LULL THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON...WITH MORE STORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT. 

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. GIVEN 
THIS...STORMS THAT DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE MOST 
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. 

THE STORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED WILL OCCUR MAINLY AT NIGHT...WITH 
STORMS MENTIONED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER 
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...WITH AREAS OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE 
RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN SOME SPOTS. 

THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY CHANGE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH 
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH 
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT IN NORTHERN AND 
WESTERN ARKANSAS. 

$$

46




73,
Glenn