[PBARC] Hazardous Weather Outlook

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Weather information brought to you by N5RN.

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
845 PM CST MON NOV 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AS OF MONDAY EVENING...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS 
WERE BREAKING OUT IN ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH 
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL REPORTED. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WAS 
INCREASING...SEVERE WEATHER WAS NOT OCCURRING. 

THE RAINFALL IN ARKANSAS WAS AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST. 
SOME WARMING TOOK PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY...BUT THE 
WARMING WAS LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER. THIS CUT DOWN ON INSTABILITY IN 
THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS HAVING DIFFICULTY DEVELOPING. 

THERE WILL BE A LARGE AMOUNT OF WIND ENERGY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT NOT MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL BE 
TRANSFERRED TO THE GROUND...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND DAMAGE 
EXPECTED. 

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER 
OVERNIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...A HEAVY 
RAIN EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED. 

THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR IS UNUSUALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF 
YEAR. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...WITH HEAVY 
TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAIN IN THE FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT TWO TO 
THREE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER 
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY OVER PARTS OF 
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...PROMPTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT 
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

PEOPLE ACROSS ARKANSAS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE 
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FOR THE 
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. 

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY. THE 
SYSTEM WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL MOVE 
OVER WARMER CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE 
DESTABILIZING. AFTER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE EAST 
TUESDAY MORNING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP DURING 
THE AFTERNOON.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD 
BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER 
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.  

THE ENTIRE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF ARKANSAS BY WEDNESDAY 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER 
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY 
BE REQUIRED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

46




73,
Glenn