[PBARC] Hazardous Weather Outlook

[pbarc@mailman.qth.net]

Weather information brought to you by N5RN.

FLUS44 KLZK 240252 AAA
HWOLIT
ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
945 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS ARKANSAS 
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. BY DAWN FRIDAY...RAIN WILL BE CONFINED 
TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. 

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH BELOW NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION THIS MONTH AND ALSO IN MARCH...IT APPEARS THAT RAIN 
WILL SOAK INTO THE GROUND FOR THE MOST PART WITH A LOW FLASH FLOOD 
THREAT. 

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A STORM SYSTEM IN WESTERN KANSAS DURING THURSDAY MORNING WILL MOVE 
SLOWLY INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE 
SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD ARKANSAS...WITH MOISTURE 
INCREASING AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW 
CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP DURING THE 
AFTERNOON...WITH HEATING HELPING TO PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR 
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 

IT APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN ARKANSAS DURING THE 
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY...AND WILL LINGER INTO THE 
EVENING. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE 
LIKELY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EXPECTED. THE WINDS 
ALOFT WILL BE CHANGING DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT...CREATING A TURNING 
MOTION IN THE ATMOSPHERE. GIVEN THIS...TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. 

OF COURSE...THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATLY 
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY THAT CAN 
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...THERE IS 
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OVER A LARGE 
PART OF ARKANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY 
NIGHT. PERSONS ACROSS ARKANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST 
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABOUT 
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

$$

46




73,
Glenn