[OKDXA] Cycle 24 Prediction from NOAA - April 2007/January 2008

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News from NOAA

Contact: Anatta    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 
  303 497-6288   April 25, 2007  

NEXT SOLAR STORM CYCLE WILL START LATE
Experts Split Over Intensity

The next 11-year cycle of solar storms will most likely start next March and
peak in late 2011 or mid-2012 - up to a year later than expected - according
to a forecast issued today by NOAA's Space Environment Center in
coordination with an international panel of solar experts.

Expected to start last fall, the delayed onset of Solar Cycle 24 stymied the
panel and left them evenly split on whether a weak or strong period of solar
storms lies ahead, but neither group predicts a record-breaker. The Space
Environment Center led the prediction panel and issued the forecast at its
annual Space Weather Workshop in Boulder. NASA sponsored the panel. 

"The Space Environment Center's space weather alerts, warnings, and
forecasts are a critical component of NOAA's seamless stewardship of the
Earth's total environment, from the Sun to the sea," said retired Vice Adm.
Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and
atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

During an active solar period, violent eruptions occur more often on the
Sun.  Solar flares and vast explosions, known as coronal mass ejections,
shoot energetic photons and highly charged matter toward Earth, jolting the
planet's ionosphere and geomagnetic field, potentially affecting power
grids, critical military and airline communications, satellites, Global
Positioning System signals, and even threatening astronauts with harmful
radiation. These same storms illuminate night skies with brilliant sheets of
red and green known as auroras, or the northern or southern lights. 

Solar cycle intensity is measured in maximum number of sunspots - dark
blotches on the Sun that mark areas of heightened magnetic activity. The
more sunspots there are, the more likely it is that major solar storms will
occur. 

In the cycle forecast issued today, half of the panel predicts a moderately
strong cycle of 140 sunspots, plus or minus 20, expected to peak in October
of 2011.  The other half predicts a moderately weak cycle of 90 sunspots,
plus or minus 10, peaking in August of 2012. An average solar cycle ranges
from 75 to 155 sunspots.  The late decline of Cycle 23 has helped shift the
panel away from its earlier leaning toward a strong Cycle 24.  Now the group
is evenly split between strong and weak.

"By giving a long-term outlook, we're advancing a new field-space
climate-that's still in its infancy," said retired Air Force Brig. Gen.
David L. Johnson, director of NOAA's National Weather Service.  "Issuing a
cycle prediction of the onset this far in advance lies on the very edge of
what we know about the Sun." 

Scientists have issued cycle predictions only twice before.  In 1989, a
panel met to predict Cycle 22, which peaked that same year.  Scientists met
again in September of 1996 to predict Cycle 23-six months after the cycle
had begun. Both groups did better at predicting timing than intensity,
according to Space Environment Center scientist Douglas Biesecker, who
chairs the current panel.  He describes the group's confidence level as
"high" for its estimate of a March 2008 onset and "moderate" overall for the
two estimates of peak sunspot number and when those peaks would occur.

One disagreement among the current panel members centers on the importance
of magnetic fields around the Sun's poles as the previous cycle decays.
End-cycle polar fields are the bedrock of the approach predicting a weak
Cycle 24.  The strong-cycle forecasters place more importance on other
precursors extending over a several-cycle history. Another clue will be
whether Cycle 24 sunspots appear by mid 2008.  If not, the strong-cycle
group might change their forecast. 

The first year after solar minimum, marking the end of Cycle 23, will
provide the information scientists need to arrive at a consensus.  NOAA and
the panel decided to issue their best estimate now and update the forecast
as the cycle progresses, since Space Environment Center customers have been
requesting a forecast for over a year. 

"The panelists in each camp have clear views on why they believe in their
prediction, why they might be wrong, and what it would take to change their
minds," said Biesecker.  "We're on the verge of understanding and agreeing
on which precursors are most important in predicting future solar activity."


NOAA's Space Environment Center is the nation's first alert of solar
activity and its affects on Earth. Just as NOAA's hurricane experts predict
the upcoming season of Atlantic storms and forecast individual hurricanes,
the agency's space weather experts issue outlooks for the next 11-year solar
cycle and warn of storms occurring on the Sun that could impact Earth.  Both
the National Hurricane Center and Space Environment Center are among nine
National Centers for Environmental Prediction, part of NOAA's National
Weather Service. The Space Environment Center is also the world warning
agency of the International Space Environment Service, a consortium of 11
member nations.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S.
Commerce Department, is celebrating 200 years of science and service to the
nation. From the establishment of the Survey of the Coast in 1807 by Thomas
Jefferson to the formation of the Weather Bureau and the Commission of Fish
and Fisheries in the 1870s, much of America's scientific heritage is rooted
in NOAA.

NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through
the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and
information service delivery for transportation, and by providing
environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources.
Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS),
NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 60 countries and the
European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as
integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects. The National
Science Foundation sponsors the annual Space Weather Workshop.


-----------------------------------

NOAA: Sunspot is Harbinger of New Solar Cycle, Increasing Risk for
Electrical Systems

January 4, 2008


First official sunspot belonging to the new Solar Cycle 24.

+ High Resolution (Credit: NOAA) 
A new 11-year cycle of heightened solar activity, bringing with it increased
risks for power grids, critical military, civilian and airline
communications, GPS signals and even cell phones and ATM transactions,
showed signs it was on its way late yesterday when the cycle's first sunspot
appeared in the sun's Northern Hemisphere, NOAA scientists said.

"This sunspot is like the first robin of spring," said solar physicist
Douglas Biesecker of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. "In this case,
it's an early omen of solar storms that will gradually increase over the
next few years."

A sunspot is an area of highly organized magnetic activity on the surface of
the sun. The new 11-year cycle, called Solar Cycle 24, is expected to build
gradually, with the number of sunspots and solar storms reaching a maximum
by 2011 or 2012, though devastating storms can occur at any time. 

During a solar storm, highly charged material ejected from the sun may head
toward Earth, where it can bring down power grids, disrupt critical
communications, and threaten astronauts with harmful radiation. Storms can
also knock out commercial communications satellites and swamp Global
Positioning System signals. Routine activities such as talking on a cell
phone or getting money from an ATM machine could suddenly halt over a large
part of the globe.

"Our growing dependence on highly sophisticated, space-based technologies
means we are far more vulnerable to space weather today than in the past,"
said Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., under secretary of commerce
for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "NOAA's space weather
monitoring and forecasts are critical for the nation's ability to function
smoothly during solar disturbances."

Last April, in coordination with an international panel of solar experts,
NOAA issued a forecast that Solar Cycle 24 would start in March 2008, plus
or minus six months. The panel was evenly split between those predicting a
strong or weak cycle. Both camps agree that the sooner the new cycle takes
over the waning previous cycle, the more likely that it will be a strong
season with many sunspots and major storms, said Biesecker. Many more
sunspots with Solar Cycle 24 traits must emerge before scientists consider
the new cycle dominant, with the potential for more frequent storms.

The new sunspot, identified as #10,981, is the latest visible spot to appear
since NOAA began numbering them on January 5, 1972. Its high-latitude
location at 27 degrees North, and its negative polarity leading to the right
in the Northern Hemisphere are clear-cut signs of a new solar cycle,
according to NOAA experts. The first active regions and sunspots of a new
solar cycle can emerge at high latitudes while those from the previous cycle
continue to form closer to the equator. 

SWPC is the nation's first alert for solar activity and its effects on
Earth. The center's space weather forecasters issue outlooks for the next
11-year solar "season" and warn of individual storms occurring on the sun
that could impact Earth. SWPC is one of NOAA's nine National Centers for
Environmental Prediction and is also the warning agency of the International
Space Environment Service (ISES), a consortium of 11 member nations.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S.
Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and
national safety through the prediction and research of weather and
climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation,
and by providing environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and
marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of
Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 70
countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network
that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.