[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 11/21/2006 5:02:04 AM

[n2qae at arrl.net]

WWUS81 KPHI 211001
SPSPHI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
501 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2006

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-212215-
KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...
HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST
501 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2006

...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...

THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE
WILL BE SOME WIND AND TIDAL CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR A GOOD PART OF 
THE WEEK AND INTERACT WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF 
THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER, NORTHEAST WINDS 
WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION. OUR LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR 
INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS WHICH MAY REACH GALE FORCE STRENGTH, 39 MPH 
OR MORE, FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY 
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  

AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY POWERFUL STORM WILL 
DEVELOP, BUT IT DOES SEEM THAT A PERSISTENT SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP THAT 
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW AND RISING TIDES 
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. ALSO, ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES 
ARE ABOVE NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE RECENT NEW MOON. TIDAL FLOODING 
THEREFORE WILL BE A CONCERN ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE 
COASTS, ADJACENT BACK BAYS, DELAWARE BAY AND RARITAN BAY. STORMS 
THAT MOVE THIS SLOWLY CAN INCREASE THE THREAT OF TIDAL FLOODING IN 
THE BACK BAYS BEFORE FLOODING BECOMES A CONCERN ON THE OCEAN FRONT 
OR LARGER BAYS. 

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES, THE HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY TIDES ON THE 
OCEAN FRONT AND IN RARITAN BAY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 8 AM AND 9 AM ON 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND BETWEEN 9 AM AND 10 AM ON FRIDAY. HIGH 
TIDES ON ADJACENT BACK BAYS OCCUR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER. THE 
HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDES IN DELAWARE BAY OCCUR BETWEEN 
9 AM AND NOON ON WEDNESDAY, AND BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM ON THURSDAY 
AND FRIDAY. ANY FLOODING WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AT THESE TIMES. MINOR 
TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW ALSO MAY CAUSE MODERATE BEACH EROSION 
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. 

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST UNTIL THE 
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE CARRY IT OUT TO SEA, BUT THAT 
MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL LATE SATURDAY.

AS ALWAYS, IF YOUR LIVE NEAR OR ALONG THE SHORE AREAS, IT WOULD BE 
BEST TO KEEP INFORMED ABOUT THIS UPCOMING STORM BY MONITORING 
FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO PREPARE FOR 
THE EFFECTS OF WINDS AND WATER ON YOUR PROPERTY.

$$

EBERWINE/IOVINO/DELISI

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