[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Winter Storm Warning : PHI@ 2/27/2005 5:17:11 AM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS41 KPHI 270953
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
450 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-NJZ001-007>010-012>022-026-027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-272300-
ATLANTIC NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-CARBON PA-CECIL MD-
CHESTER PA-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-KENT MD-KENT DE-
LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-
NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-
PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...CAMDEN...DOVER...
NEW BRUNSWICK...NEWARK...PERTH AMBOY...PHILADELPHIA...READING...
TRENTON...VINELAND AND WILMINGTON
450 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
TODAY AND THEN MOVE TO NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. 
THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW ACROSS 
THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE STEADY SNOWS WILL BEGIN OVER THE 
EASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE, SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA 
AREAS AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND THEN SPREAD 
NORTHWARD. THE SNOWS WILL REACH THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY 
BY LATE MORNING. ONCE THE SNOWS BEGIN, THEY MAY BECOME HEAVY AT 
TIMES WITH REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS 
MOST AREAS. 

ONCE THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER TO OUR REGION THE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO 
MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN IN THE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 
95 CORRIDOR. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO 
INTERSTATE 95 COULD BE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES 
IN CENTRAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH 
VALLEY WILL HAVE SNOW AND SOME SLEET DURING MONDAY WITH  
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED.

THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, SO OUR FORECAST AND 
OUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY CHANGE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE TIME 
OF THE EVENT. YOU ARE, HOWEVER, URGED TO PREPARE NOW FOR THE 
POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  

$$
$$

THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR THE WINTER OF LATE 2004 THROUGH 
EARLY 2005.  THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A 
COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS 
POTENTIAL STORM.  THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS EARLY MONDAY 
INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. 

=====================================================================

           PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
         THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)

=====================================================================
STATION      2IN    4IN    6IN    9IN   12IN   18IN   24IN
=====================================================================

MPO          85     75     55     25     15     <5     <5 
ABE          90     85     70     35     20      5     <5 
PHL          90     85     75     40     20      5     <5 
ACY          85     75     55     25     15     <5     <5 
GED          60     30     15      5     <5     <5     <5 
=====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.

STATION IDENTIFIERS:

MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - POMONA, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT) 
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)

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