[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 2/26/2005 4:17:47 PM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS81 KPHI 262053
SPSPHI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 PM EST SAT FEB 26 2005

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-271100-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...ATLANTIC CITY...BETHLEHEM...
CAMDEN...DOVER...NEW BRUNSWICK...NEWARK...PERTH AMBOY...
PHILADELPHIA...READING...TRENTON...VINELAND AND WILMINGTON
353 PM EST SAT FEB 26 2005

...ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY 
NIGHT...

A STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BECOME 
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY AND 
THEN MOVE TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS 
STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS 
CAPE COD MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE STORM WILL 
BE 100 TO 300 MILES EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS AS IT 
MOVES BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FORECAST TRACK STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN 
AND COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

CONSIDERING THE FORECAST STORM TRACK, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN MONDAY 
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND 
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE SNOW WOULD THEN CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT BUT 
TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES BY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A 
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA,CENTRAL NEW 
JERSEY AND INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND NORTHERN 
DELAWARE,SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, 
IN THIS AREA, THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND SLEET 
FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. AS 
THE STORM ENDS MONDAY NIGHT, COLDER AIR WILL RETURN FROM THE 
NORTHWEST. ANY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW 
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES OR ENDING. SNOWFALL COULD BE 
SIGNIFICANT, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA.

ACROSS THE EASTERN MARYLAND SHORE, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND 
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST, PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO BEGIN AS SNOW 
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULD THEN CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY 
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION. A COUPLE 
INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE.

AGAIN, IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM WILL 
DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL OCCUR AND HOW FAR INLAND THE 
SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN. OUR FORECASTS MAY CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THE 
EVENT. YOU ARE URGED TO PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS AND 
STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. 

IN AREAS WHERE THE SNOW CHANGES OVER TO RAIN, THERE COULD BE 
FLOODING ALONG SMALL STREAMS OR IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RECENT SNOWS 
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO MELT INTO AREA STREAMS AND THIS SNOW MELT WILL 
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SINCE THE GROUND IS EITHER SATURATED OR FROZEN, 
ANY RAIN THAT FALLS ON MONDAY WILL EASILY RUN OFF, THEREBY CAUSING 
RISES TO THE STREAMS. IF YOU LIVE NEAR STREAMS OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS

YOU SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AS FLOODING COULD DEVELOP 
WITH THIS SYSTEM. 

IN ADDITION, STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE STORM AND 
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WINDS WILL PROMOTE SOME TIDAL FLOODING AND 
BEACH EROSION DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY 
NIGHT. IF YOUR AREA IS AFFECTED BY TIDAL FLOODING, PAY ATTENTION TO 
ANY DEVELOPMENTS REGARDING THIS STORM SYSTEM. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR 
FURTHER UPDATES. 

$$

STAUBER/KRUZDLO/GORSE/IOVINOWWWW