[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 2/22/2004 3:48:47 AM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS81 KPHI 220857
SPSPHI
WINTER STORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2004



DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-222300-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
358 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2004



...DIMINISHING CHANCES OF A MIDWEEK WINTER STORM...

THE MAJORITY OF THE MOST RECENT COMPUTER MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
THE FULL BRUNT OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM, IF SAID STORM DEVELOPS,
LIKELY WOULD BE FELT SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE IS SOME SIGN THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY, AND SOME MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD FALL
THEN. HOWEVER, THAT LOW MAY TRANSFER ITS ENERGY OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE U.S., AND THE SECONDARY LOW MAY THEN TRACK WELL AWAY
FROM THE COAST. HENCE, THE THREAT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND TIDAL
FLOODING AROUND MIDWEEK IS DIMINISHED. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WILL OF COURSE BE MONITORING 
DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK
AT HOW COMPUTER MODELS VARY, BOTH AMONG INDIVIDUAL MODELS AS WELL AS
FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT MODEL RUN, WHICH IS MOSTLY EVERY 12
HOURS, TO SEE IF ANY ONE MODEL IS PERFORMING BETTER IN IDENTIFYING
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT OUR
REGION WILL DODGE THE ITS MAIN EFFECTS, IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT
THERE STILL IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MIDWEEK STORM OFF THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC COAST.

AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD STILL LISTEN FOR LATER WEATHER STATEMENTS 
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 
WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE FROM NOAA WEATHER RADIO, AND ALSO
FROM COMMERCIAL TV AND RADIO. 

$$

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT US ON THE WEB AT: 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI (IN LOWER CASE).

$$
MPD

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