[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 2/21/2004 4:08:43 PM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS81 KPHI 212115
SPSPHI
WINTER STORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
415 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2004



DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-221100-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
415 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2004



...A POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC 
REGION FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

ALTHOUGH THIS POSSIBLE EVENT IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, COMPUTER MODELS 
ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM...A NOR'EASTER...IN 
THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. SINCE SOME WARMER AIR 
MAY ARRIVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THIS POTENTIAL STORM, A MIX OF 
PRECIPITATION TYPES IS POSSIBLE, MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST AT 
BEST. AND, SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA 
AND VIRGINIA COASTS, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION...SUCH AS THE 
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND 
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...COULD BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF 
PRECIPITATION, ADDING TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH 
EROSION. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING, THIS 
POSSIBLE EVENT WILL BE BETWEEN THE NEW AND FULL MOON, SO NORMAL 
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IF A NEW OR FULL MOON WAS 
OCCURRING.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WILL OF COURSE BE MONITORING 
DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT HOW 
COMPUTER MODELS VARY, BOTH AMONG INDIVIDUAL MODELS AS WELL AS FROM 
ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT MODEL RUN, WHICH IS MOSTLY EVERY 12 HOURS, 
TO SEE IF ANY ONE MODEL IS PERFORMING BETTER IN IDENTIFYING THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF NOT ONLY THE SURFACE STORM, BUT OTHER FEATURES AS 
WELL. AT THIS TIME, IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS ONLY A 
POTENTIAL FOR A STORM AT THIS POINT, AND THAT A LARGE AMOUNT OF 
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO LOCATION AND TIMING, AS WELL AS TO TYPE AND 
AMOUNTS, OF ANY PRECIPITATION.  

AREA RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO LISTEN FOR LATER WEATHER STATEMENTS 
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS 
SITUATION UNFOLDS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, OR COMMERCIAL 
TV AND RADIO, FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER EVENT.

$$

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT US ON THE WEB AT: 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI (IN LOWER CASE).

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