[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 2/1/2004 3:16:55 PM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS81 KPHI 012019
SPSPHI

WINTER STORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2004

...A WINTER STORM STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD 
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE LOW REACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION, 
A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC 
COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE HEADING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE 
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD WEATHER WILL MOVE TO EASTERN 
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE 
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY FAR EAST, WHICH TYPICALLY IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR 
KEEPING THE COLD AIR LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT, 
MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND 
CHANGE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.

THE LATEST PROJECTIONS WOULD BRING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. THIS MEANS THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE 
AFFECTED BY SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

FOR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY, NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, 
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE SNOW IS THEN 
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MIX WITH SLEET BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS, THEN MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT 
ICING IS POSSIBLE.

FOR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA,INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA, AND CENTRAL 
NEW JERSEY, A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR 
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY. 
SOME ICING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE CHANGEOVER.

OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND, A BRIEF 
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY 
MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE TUESDAY 
MORNING, ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN. 
SOME MINOR AREAS OF ICING IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE EXACT TRACK AND EXTENT OF THE WARMING GETTING INVOLVED WITH THIS 
STORM SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME, THE AREAS MOST 
VULNERABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE 
THE NORTHERN LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND INTO NORTHWEST NEW 
JERSEY.

IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE, LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR ICE
ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA AND 
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, AS THE STORM MOVES EAST OF THE 
REGION TUESDAY EVENING, ENOUGH COLDER AIR MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN 
AREAS AND CHANGE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN TO SOME LIGHT SNOW 
OR FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING.  

LATER FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE TYPE, AMOUNT AND 
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR 
FURTHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS STORM.
$$

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT: 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI (IN LOWER CASE).

GORSE