[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 2/1/2004 4:12:16 AM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS81 KPHI 010914
SPSPHI
WINTER STORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2004



DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-012200-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
414 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2004


...A WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE LOW REACHES THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT ROUND OF COLD WEATHER 
WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS 
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE KEY IN THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT 
REMAINS OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES.

THE LATEST PROJECTIONS WOULD BRING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION VERY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS MEANS COMMUTER
TRAFFIC TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE AFFECTED BY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

OVER NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...AND OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE
SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MIX WITH SLEET BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL BEFORE
ANY CHANGEOVER...THEN SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE.

OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHEAST MARYLAND
AND NORTHERN DELAWARE...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE.

OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...MIXED SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY
CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO PLAIN RAIN. ICING IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.

THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM.
THE EXACT STORM TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY TELL THE STORY ON WHERE THE 
HEAVIEST FROZEN AND FREEZING PRECIPITATION OCCURS. IF THE COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH, ANY MILDER AIR TRYING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION COULD BE PINCHED OFF. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW AND ICE
THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

LATER FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER PINPOINT THE TYPE, AMOUNT AND
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR 
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.
$$

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT: 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI (IN LOWER CASE).

RNS

$$