[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Coastal Flood Warning : PHI@ 5/15/2003 9:04:04 PM

[PHI Skywarn]

WHUS41 KPHI 160110
CFWPHI
DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-160900-

COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
910 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGH TIDE FRIDAY 
EVENING - THIS INCLUDES THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTLINES - THE 
ADJACENT BACK BAYS AND INLETS - RARITAN BAY AND DELAWARE BAY...
...THE WORST EXPECTED TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE 
FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE - BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED POCKETS 
OF MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING FRIDAY MORNING...
...THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY... 


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ MAINTAINS A COASTAL 
FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN DELAWARE...
  KENT AND SUSSEX.

IN NEW JERSEY...
  CAPE MAY...ATLANTIC...OCEAN...MONMOUTH...MIDDLESEX...CUMBERLAND AND
  SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON COUNTIES.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...A LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND 
UNUSUALLY HIGH SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON MAY ALL 
COMBINE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 
HIGH TIDES FRIDAY EVENING. 

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH 
THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL BE THE THIRD TIDE CYCLE WITH 
ONSHORE FLOW AND WILL ALSO BE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES FOR 
THE DAY. AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE HIGH 
TIDES FRIDAY MORNING. ANY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS ANY LARGE WAVES 
BREAKING ONTO THE SHORE WOULD EXACERBATE THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT BY 
FRIDAY EVENING.

SOME BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH 
TIDE. MANY COASTAL AREAS ARE VULNERABLE TO FURTHER EROSION DUE TO 
THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED THIS 
PAST WINTER AND EARLY SPRING. 

LATEST COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
COULD LINGER EAST OF THE DELMARVA COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY... 
PROLONGING THE ONSHORE FLOW. IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO EXTEND THE 
COASTAL FLOODING THREAT INTO SATURDAY WITH LATER FORECASTS. 
 
THE FOLLOWING FORECAST HIGH TIDES ARE ALL REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER 
LOW WATER. HIGH TIDES IN THE BACK BAYS USUALLY OCCUR LATER THAN THE 
OCEAN FRONT.

FOR SANDY HOOK ON THE RARITAN BAY...THE HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT
838 AM FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN EXPECTED HEIGHT OF BETWEEN 7.0 AND 7.5 
FEET...AND 901 PM FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN EXPECTED HEIGHT AROUND 8.0 
FEET.
 
FOR SEASIDE HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT...THE HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR 
AT 808 AM FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN EXPECTED HEIGHT OF BETWEEN 6.5 AND 
7.0 FEET...AND 831 PM FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN EXPECTED HEIGHT OF 
BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.0 FEET.
 
FOR ATLANTIC CITY ON THE OCEAN FRONT...THE HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT 
813 AM FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN EXPECTED HEIGHT OF BETWEEN 6.0 AND 6.5 
FEET...AND 837 PM FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN EXPECTED HEIGHT OF AROUND 
7.5 FEET.

FOR CAPE MAY ON THE OCEAN FRONT...THE HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT 845 
AM FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN EXPECTED HEIGHT OF AROUND 7.0 FEET...AND 
908 PM FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN EXPECTED HEIGHT AROUND 8.0 FEET.

FOR BREAKWATER HARBOR ON DELAWARE BAY...THE HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT 
927 AM FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN EXPECTED HEIGHT OF BETWEEN 6.0 AND 6.5 
FEET...AND 949 PM FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN EXPECTED HEIGHT OF AROUND 
7.5 FEET.

FOR FENWICK ISLAND ON THE OCEAN FRONT...HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT
824 AM FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN EXPECTED HEIGHT OF AROUND 6.0 FEET... 
AND 847 PM FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN EXPECTED HEIGHT OF AROUND 7.0 FEET.

CONTINUE TO MAKE THE NECESSARY PREPARATIONS. PLEASE DO NOT DRIVE 
AROUND BARRICADES. SOME FLOOD PRONE ROADWAYS MAY WELL BE CLOSED 
DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES...STARTING WITH THE HIGH TIDE FRIDAY 
MORNING.   

REMEMBER...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT IMMINENT. MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING BEGINS AROUND
7.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. IF MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS 
IMMINENT...THEN A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION OUTLET FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET
AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI IN SMALL LETTERS.

$$

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