[MCARC] [Fwd: [LarrysList FYI] Upcoming Solar Storms]

[Nate Bargmann]

----- Forwarded message from "KB0TOT Chuck via groups.io" <masterdowser=yahoo.com at groups.io> -----

Date: Wed, 14 Aug 2024 15:00:41 -0700
From: "KB0TOT Chuck via groups.io" <masterdowser=yahoo.com at groups.io>
To: FYI at larrys-list.groups.io
Reply-To: FYI at larrys-list.groups.io
Subject: [LarrysList FYI] Upcoming Solar Storms
User-Agent: GROUPS.IO Web Poster

Sent: Wed, Aug 14, 2024 at 2:27 PM
Subject: United Simplexton Alliance (MJSS) Sunspots and Solar Flares Report
BIG FARSIDE SUNSPOTS: There are two sunspot groups on the farside of the sun so big they are affecting the way the whole sun vibrates. Helioseismic maps suggest that one of them will turn toward Earth this weekend. The appearance of another big sunspot group should keep sunspot numbers elevated at their current 20-year high.
X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: As predicted, strangely-magnetized sunspot AR3784 (described below) produced an X1-class solar flare today. The explosion was directly facing Earth:

Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a deep shortwave radio blackout over India and the Middle East: map. The explosion might have hurled a faint halo CME toward Earth, but the jury's still out. Confirmation awaits data from SOHO coronagraphs.

A STRANGELY MAGNETIZED SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR3784 is breaking Hale's Law. According to that hundred-year-old rule, sunspots in the sun's northern hemisphere should be polarized like this: . Instead, AR3784 is polarized like this: . This magnetic map from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the 90-degree twist:

What does this even mean? Sunspots do break the law from time to time (3% of the time, to be exact). Usually they are "reversed polarity"--that is,  instead of . Sunspot AR3784 is halfway in between.

The magnetic underpinnings of this sunspot are corkscrewing in an unusual way. If opposite magnetic polarities get twisted together too tightly, there could be an X-class solar flare.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2024 Aug 14 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 14-Aug 16 2024 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 14-Aug 16 2024

Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16
00-03UT 4.33 1.67 2.33
03-06UT 3.00 1.33 1.67
06-09UT 2.00 1.33 2.00
09-12UT 1.67 1.33 2.33
12-15UT 2.00 1.33 2.33
15-18UT 1.33 1.33 2.33
18-21UT 1.33 1.67 2.33
21-00UT 1.67 1.67 2.33     .
.
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 14-Aug 16 2024

Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16
S1 or greater 20% 10% 10%

Rationale: There is a slight, but increasing chance for S1 (Minor)
conditions on 14 Aug following the X1 flare from near center disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 14 2024 0640 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 14-Aug 16 2024

Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16
R1-R2 75% 75% 75%
R3 or greater 25% 25% 25%

Rationale: (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for (R3-Strong) radio blackouts through 16 Aug.
--
Hope to hear you on the air!!

Paul
K4PEW
Mt. Juliet

RELAYED EMAIL

☀️
73's
Chuck KB0TOT


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