[Lowfer] Solar activity

[jrusgrove at comcast.net]

Good info and links John.

One piece info from Alan that's somewhat counterintuitive ... prolonged periods of very low solar 
activity may not necessarily produce the best propagation. So be careful what you hope for!

Jay W1VD  WD2XNS  WE2XGR/2


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "John Andrews" <w1tag at charter.net>
To: <Lowfer at mailman.qth.net>
Sent: Thursday, February 17, 2011 11:11 AM
Subject: [Lowfer] Solar activity


> All,
>
> As of this writing, there has been no CME arrival from the X2 solar
> flare on the 15th. Something totally unrelated arrived earlier in the
> week and depressed LF conditions a bit, but indicators like the Dst
> index are recovering nicely. So there has been no big event affecting LF
> propagation, yet. It's possible that the big CME and a couple of earlier
> small ones could arrive later today, and that will be worth watching for
> both aurora and depressed LF conditions starting in 1-2 days.
>
> As Jay and I have frequently suggested, Alan Melia (G3NYK) has a wealth
> of LF propagation-related information on his web site:
> http://www.alan.melia.btinternet.co.uk/
> The articles on this main site are specifically aimed at LF work, and
> while they in some cases have simplifying assumptions, his track record
> over the last 10 years or more has been very good. No PHD is needed to
> learn this stuff!
>
> In particular, Alan's rolling forecasts are very useful:
> http://www.alan.melia.btinternet.co.uk/latest.htm#Latest%20Propagation%20Report
> Alan deserves your encouragement to keep this service going. He gets a
> bit discouraged from time to time that nobody is paying attention!
>
> There are a number of good sources for watching solar activity, and it's
> effect on the Earth. Try http://www.spaceweather.com/ for a starter.
> Much more detailed info is available from NOAA at:
> http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ . A good 3-day forecast is in their "popular
> pages" drop-down.
>
> Once you get the hang of the info on Alan's site, the Dst index data:
> http://swdc234.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dst_realtime/presentmonth/index.html
> from Kyoto is a great indicator of the strength of a CME impact or
> coronal hole flow, and of our magnetosphere's recovery over a period of
> days.
>
> John, W1TAG
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