[LeArc] Sunspot is Harbinger of New Solar Cycle, Increasing Risk for Electrical Systems

[Brandon Sullivan]

 new 11-year cycle of heightened solar activity, bringing with it
increased risks for power grids, critical military, civilian and
airline communications, GPS signals and even cell phones and ATM
transactions, showed signs it was on its way late yesterday when the
cycle’s first sunspot appeared in the sun’s Northern Hemisphere, NOAA
scientists said.
		“This sunspot is like the first robin of spring,”  said solar physicist Douglas Biesecker of NOAA.  “In this case, it’s an early omen of solar storms that will gradually increase  over the next few years.”
		A sunspot is an area of highly organized magnetic activity  on the surface of the sun. The new 11-year cycle, called solar cycle 24,
is expected to build gradually, with the number of sunspots and solar
storms reaching a maximum by 2011 or 2012, though devastating storms
can occur at any time. 
		During a solar storm, highly charged
material ejected from the sun may head toward Earth, where it can bring
down power grids, disrupt critical communications, and threaten
astronauts with harmful radiation. Storms can also knock out commercial
communications satellites and swamp Global Positioning System signals.
Routine activities such as talking on a cell phone or getting money
from an ATM machine could suddenly halt over a large part of the globe.
		

		Last April, in coordination with an international panel of solar  experts, NOAA issued a forecast
that Solar Cycle 24 would start in March 2008, plus or minus six
months. The panel was evenly split between those predicting a strong or
weak cycle. Both camps agree that the sooner the new cycle takes over
the waning previous cycle, the more likely that it will be a strong
season with many sunspots and major storms, said Biesecker. Many more
sunspots with Solar Cycle 24 traits must emerge before scientists
consider the new cycle dominant, with the potential for more frequent
storms.
		The new sunspot, identified as #10,981, is the latest
visible spot to appear since NOAA began numbering them on January 5,
1972. Its high-latitude location at 27 degrees North, and its negative
polarity leading to the right in the Northern Hemisphere are clear-cut
signs of a new solar cycle, according to NOAA experts. The first active
regions and sunspots of a new solar cycle can emerge at high latitudes
while those from the previous cycle continue to form closer to the
equator. 
		

		The
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S.
Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and
national safety through the prediction and research of weather and
climate-related events and information service delivery for
transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of our
nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global
Earth Observation System of Systems ,
NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 70 countries and
the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is
as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.

		  

Brandon