[LeArc] FW: AstroAlert: Chances for a Record-Setting "Northern Lights" Show

Sat, 25 Oct 2003 13:12:12 +0000

I thought I would post this on the reflector because people are getting
stupid and ridiculous thinking they are in for one heck of a storm.

Jay

Jay Hainline  KA9CFD  EN40om
Colchester, IL
[email protected]
http://www.qsl.net/learc=20

-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Cary Oler
Sent: Saturday, October 25, 2003 08:22
To: [email protected]
Subject: AstroAlert: Chances for a Record-Setting "Northern Lights" Show

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This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
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                            A s t r o  A l e r t
                               Sun-Earth Alert

                          Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
                            http://www.spacew.com

                    Images of this event are available at:
                    http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html

                               25 October 2003

CHANCES FOR A RECORD-SETTING "NORTHERN LIGHTS" SHOW

     It is remarkable how often the news media take scattered facts, =
throw
them together incorrectly and then claim authenticity. Such was the case =
in
abundance for the space weather storm of 24 October. Media reports that =
this
storm would be a "perfect storm" or the "once in a 100 year event" were
shamefully inaccurate.

     An important scientific paper published by a respected researcher =
in
space physics and publicized recently by NASA was probably the source of =
the
confusion. The paper discussed conditions around the largest geomagnetic
storm on historic record - the event of 1-2 September 1859. The media
incorrectly thought that current solar activity would produce a storm as
large as the 1859 event. To our knowledge, no professional space weather
organization made such a claim. Nevertheless, the remarkable nature of =
this
rumor quickly spread through the media until it was as horribly =
distorted as
looking through a broken mirror. The result of this mass confusion was =
an
unfounded and popular belief within the public community that a hugely
powerful display of northern lights would appear around the world. It =
is,
perhaps fittingly ironic, that Mother Nature refused to comply. We hope =
this
will help clear up the mass confusion surrounding the event of 24 =
October.

     Initial conditions suggested the activity of 24 October could grow =
into
a respectable disturbance capable of producing visible northern lights =
into
the middle latitudes (yet nothing even close to the 1859 storm was ever
anticipated). And in fact, observations of activity into northern =
Germany
and other locales were received soon after the diturbance arrived (a =
result
of the stress placed upon the Earth's magnetosphere by strong solar wind
pressure). But the disturbance quickly shut off the valves and kept them
shut through to the end, disappointing many.

     The next solar disturbance from recent days' coronal mass ejection
activity could arrive over the next 24 hours. It is not expected to be a
terribly strong disturbance. The mass from this CME was directed well =
away
from the Earth, but a component of that disturbance was detected =
travelling
Earthward. As a result, we should see a "glancing blow". This could
invigorate levels of auroral activity once again on 25 and 26 October.
Observers in North America may want to peek at the skies during the =
local
evening hours of Saturday, 25 October. Given how unproductive the event =
of
24 October was, it might not be too difficult for this next anticipated
disturbance to exceed the productivity of the 24 October event. =
Observers
are encouraged to keep an eye on conditions.

     Sunspot complex 486 is continuing to spawn less energetic solar =
flares
and associated coronal mass ejections. It is also continuing to rotate =
into
a better radial alignment with the Earth. Nevertheless, most (if not =
all) of
the coronal mass ejections observed recently have not appeared to =
contain
any Earthward-directed components.

     Either Region 486 or the other large sunspot complex (Region 484) =
could
produce additional significant solar flare activity over the coming =
days.
That activity could result in disturbances capable of producing visible
auroral activity over widespread middle latitude regions.

     Don't expect a storm the size of the record-setting 1859 event.
Although these active regions perhaps possess the capability of spawning
such a storm, the odds of it actually occurring are very remote.

**  End of the AstroAlert Bulletin  **
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