[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 3/16/03 1:34:08 PM

Sun, 16 Mar 2003 13:34:08 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 161943
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
140 PM CST SUN MAR 16 2003

.OVERVIEW...LACK OF LOW CLOUDS TODAY RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.  AT 19Z MOST
AREAS RUNNING BETWEEN 64 AND 70 DEGREES FOR A NICE EARLY SPRING DAY.
AREA OF ALTO-CUMULUS MOVING INTO NW CWFA ON EDGE OF VORT LOBE WITH
STRONGER VORT MAX TIED INTO SYSTEM IN NE OKLAHOMA.  ANALYSIS SUPPORTS
WEAK VORT MAX TO TRACK INTO NW IOWA BY DAWN.  UPSTREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM
NOW ONSHORE WITH DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH AND LOW IN EXTREME SE
COLORADO.  AREA DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED 50 TO 55 RANGE AND MODIFIED
SKEW-T SUGGEST IF TEMPS REACH ~76F (OTM 73 NOW) THEN OUR CONVECTIVE
TEMP REALIZED...WILL NEED TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY WITH UPSTREAM VORT
MAX...ANTICIPATE SHRA AND TSRA TO START ON THIS LINE NEXT FEW HOURS.

...CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND FOG EARLY ISSUES AND THEN PACIFIC SYSTEM
LONGER RANGE CHALLENGE...

.DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...MODELS HANDLING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE MUCH
BETTER TODAY WITH FWC BEST.  WILL TREND TOWARD ETA LOW LEVEL FORCING
WHICH SUGGEST SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA OR TSRA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH PASSING VORT MAX WESTERN 1/2 AREA.  DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...SE WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS CAN/T RULE OUT AREAS OF LIGHT FOG IN
1 TO 3 MILE RANGE SO LEANING TOWARD GOING WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEEP IN
AS LIKE PAST 3 DAYS...ESPECIALLY WITH 50+ DEWPOINTS.  TEMPS WILL TREND
ON LOW SIDE TONIGHT WITH COLD GROUND OR LIKE PERSISTENCE PAST 3 DAYS...
THEN HIGHS TOMORROW NEAR TODAY/S OR A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER WITH SE
WINDS.  MONDAY NIGHT DELAYED ARRIVAL OF SW US SYSTEM SUGGEST MAINLY DRY
INTO TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS LATE TUE.  BIG ISSUE IS BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY NORTH.  MODELS FALLING IN
LINE SO 15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE FOR HIGHS.  TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME DRIZZLE AND CHANCE OF RAIN ON STRENGTHENING NE WINDS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  WEDNESDAY HIGHS AN EVEN BIGGER CHALLENGE WITH 20 PLUS MAX
TEMP DIFFERENCE NEEDED WITH RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED STORM SOUTH AS MAIN
VORT MAX FINALLY ARRIVES...AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE NORTHERN 1/2 OF AREA
WITH LAKE EFFECT AS WELL.

.EXTENDED (THU-SUN)...UPPER TROUGH AND OCCLUSION TO REMAIN OVER SE
SECTIONS THURSDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN NW AND CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA SE WITH
HEATING. THEN WRAPAROUND CHANCE RAIN FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW SLIDES NE.
THEN NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AND MAINLY DRY.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

NICHOLS