[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 3/16/03 1:31:57 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 161941
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
135 PM CST SUN MAR 16 2003

.OVERVIEW...LACK OF LOW CLOUDS TODAY RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMEPRATURES ON SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.  AT 19Z MOST
AREAS RUNNING BETWEEN 64 AND 70 DEGREES FOR A NICE EARLY SPRING DAY.
AREA OF ALTO-CUMULUS MOVING INTO NW CWFA ON EDGE OF VORT LOBE WITH
STRONGER VORT MAX TIED INTO SYSTEM IN NE OKLAHOMA.  ANALYSIS SUPPORTS
WEAK VORT MAX TO TRACK INTO NW IOWA BY DAWN.  UPSTREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM
NOW ONSHORE WITH DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH AND LOW IN EXTREME SE
COLORADO.  AREA DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED 50 TO 55 RANGE AND MODIFIED
SKEW-T SUGGEST IF TEMPS REACH ~76F (OTM 73 NOW) THEN OUR CONVECTIVE
TEMP REALIZED...WILL NEED TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY WITH UPSTREAM VORT
MAX...ANTICIPATE SHRA AND TSRA TO START ON THIS LINE NEXT FEW HOURS.

...CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND FOG EARLY ISSUES AND THEN PACIFIC SYSTEM
LONGER RANGE CHALLENGE...

.DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...MODELS HANDLING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE MUCH
BETTER TODAY WITH FWC BEST.  WILL TREND TOWARD ETA LOW LEVEL FORCING
WHICH SUGGEST SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA OR TSRA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSING VORT MAX WESTERN 1/2 AREA.  DESPITE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SE WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS CAN/T RULE OUT
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG IN 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE SO LEANING TOWARD GOING WITH
PERSISTENCE AND KEEP IN AS LIKE PAST 3 DAYS...ESEPCAILLY WITH 50+
DEWPOINTS.  TEMPS WILL TREND ON LOW SIDE TONIGHT WITH COLD GROUND OR
LIKE PERSITENCE PAST 3 DAYS...THEN HIGHS TOMORROW NEAR TODAY/S OR A
COUPE DEGREES LOWER WITH SE WINDS.  MONDAY NIGHT DELAYED ARRIVAL OF
SW US SYSTEM SUGGEST MAINLY DRY INTO TUESDAY WITH CAHNCE POPS LATE
TUE.  BIG ISSUE IS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF FOG
ESPECIALLY NORTH.  MODELS FALLING IN LINE SO 15 DEGREE DIFFEREENCE
FOR HIGHS.  TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE AND CHANCE
OF RAIN ON STRENGTHENING NE WINDS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WEDNESDAY HIGHS
AN EVEN BIGGER CAHNLLENGE WITH 20 PLUS DIFFERENCE NEEDED WITH RAIN
AND SOME EMBEDDED STORM SOUTH AS MAIN VORT MAX FINALLY ARRIVES...
AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE NORTHERN 1/2 WITH LAKE EFFECT AS WELL.

.EXTENDED (THU-SUN)...UPPER TROUGH AND OCCLUSION TO REMAIN OVER SE
SECTIONS THURSDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN NW AND CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA SE WITH
HEATING. THEN WRAPAROUND CHANCE RAIN FRIDAY AS UPPER SLIDES NE.  THEN
NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AND MAINLY DRY.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

NICHOLS