[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/24/2003 4:54:55 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 240953
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
453 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2003

THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS A 500MB RIDGE OVER THE MID
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A TROF WEST OVER THE ROCKIES.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN MN INTO WESTERN
NE.  AN MCS IS CURRENTLY SKIRTING OUR NORTHWEST SECTIONS...ON THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THETA-E AXIS...AND WITH A VORT MAX.
THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM
THE AREA...BUT WILL BRIEFLY TOUCH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
AND COULD SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS I-80 BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS A COLD FRONT IN
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE...AND COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY.  ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE HIGH HEAT INDICES TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY MAINLY IN THE MID 90S AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S...AND LOWER 70S DEW POINTS BOTH DAYS...
HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE IN THE AFTERNOONS.  A
10 TO 20 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZE BOTH DAYS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF.

THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS AGREE ON HIGH CAPES AND LI'S THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT WITH WARM 700MB TEMPS AND THE THETA-E RIDGE REMAINING WEST OF
THE AREA.  CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD FIRE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN...INTO WESTERN WI.  AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  STRONG 700MB VV'S AND 300MB DIVERGENCE FROM 00Z
TO 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANYING THE THETA-E AXIS...WILL FAVOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  PRECIP SHOULD MOVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY DAWN THURSDAY.  AFTER THAT...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THICKNESSES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  A WEAK SHORT WAVE ON SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

WILL REMOVE PRECIP FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  WILL ALSO LOWER
TEMPS A NOTCH OR TWO FOR THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA