[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/23/2003 5:03:16 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 232142
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
440 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

APOLOGIES FOR THE LATE AFD...

ISOLATED TSRA CAUSED A LITTLE EXCITEMENT AROUND THE AREA WITH A 
SMALL MCV LIKE FEATURE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.  THIS MCV 
ALSO USHERED IN THE SOUP...WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING RISEN FROM THE MID 
50S TO MID 60S THIS MORNING...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S BY 21Z.  UPPER 
LEVEL FEATURES NOT AS COHERENT AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WITH THE 
850MB JET OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...POISED TO PUSH LOTS OF 
WARM MOIST AIR OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE OUGHT TO BE ANOTHER MCS FORMING TONIGHT OVER 
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND MN...WHICH OUGHT TO MOVE SLOWLY 
EAST/SOUTHEAST TO AFFECT MN AND WI OVERNIGHT.  DO NOT EXPECT IT TO 
GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO APPROACH CWA BY MORNING.  

MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND FRONT PASSAGE 
THROUGH THURSDAY. 

12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL...EXCEPT NONE 
SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP.  

TONIGHT HAVE GONE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MCV SCOOTING OFF 
TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE NEW MCS NOT GETTING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO 
AFFECT THE AREA BY MORNING.  WARM AND STICKY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS 
ONLY FALLING INTO THE 70S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.   THIS HOT AND 
STICKY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY 
NIGHT...WITH THE CAP WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...KEEPING  
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CWA.   WITH THESE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS 
INTO THE 90S...HEAT INDEXES OUGHT TO BE PUSHING 100 IN A FEW 
LOCATIONS.  HAVE MENTIONED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE PACKAGE.

THEN...WEDNESDAY THE DYNAMICS MANAGE TO FINALLY WORK INTO THE 
AREA...WITH GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.  HAVE GONE WITH SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE 
FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.  
THURSDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP BEHIND THE 
FRONT...BUT HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW AS THIS IS SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT DUE 
TO THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT...DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH FINALLY MOVING THROUGH.  BY FRIDAY...DRY AIR MOVES IN QUITE 
WELL AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WELL TO THE EAST....SO NO PRECIP 
NEEDED FOR THEN.  

THE WEEKEND...FOR NOW...LOOKS DRY. THERE IS A SMALL FEATURE TO MOVE 
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...WHICH 
MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT THE AREA.  PRECIP CHANCES ARE PRETTY 
SMALL...SO HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW UNTIL THIS BECOMES 
MORE DEFINED.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

LE
LE