[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/3/2003 3:18:40 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 030815
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
315 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003

UPPER LOW DRIFTING INTO SW WI PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS OVER CWFA WITH 
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ON 88D AND METARS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EARLY THIS 
MORNING. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW CONTINUES TO 
CHURN SLOWLY EAST WITH EACH MODEL RUN SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESS 
SOME. ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WAS OBVIOUS IN 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 07Z MOVING INTO NORTHWEST SD. FORECAST MODELS 
IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS VORT MOVING EAST-SE BUT NOT HAVING MUCH 
IMPACT LOCALLY AS UPPER LOW TO NORTHEAST REMAINS PREDOMINANT FEATURE 
FEATURE AS IT MOVES ONLY INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI BY MIDDAY WED. AT 
SURFACE...LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN TIP IL AND HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER 
SOUTHERN MN EXTENDING NORTHEAST WELL INTO ONTARIO. THE LOW SCOOTS 
QUICKLY AWAY TO EAST LEAVING BROAD WEAK SURFACE HIGH TO NORTH AND 
DEEP MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN 
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SHORT TERM PRECIP CHANCES AND UNSEASONABLY 
COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF WEEK.  

MODELS THIS RUN WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES 
THAN PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY FOLLOWED AVN SOLUTION DUE TO ITS RUN TO 
RUN CONTINUITY. 

TODAY...WEAK LIFT ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN WI UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE 
LIFT FOR MAINLY DRIZZLE WITH BEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 DURING 
MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT 
PRECIPITATION AND WILL PROVIDE MENTION TO ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. 
THIS...ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A WARMUP TODAY 
AND THUS STAYED ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOW 60S BEING 
OPTIMISTIC. CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH NIGHT AS UPPER LOW SEEMS TO GET 
REINVIGORATED JUST TO OUR EAST OR NORTHEAST. DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL 
DRYING OF LOWEST LAYERS TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...BUT 
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOOKS CERTAIN. LOWS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO...OR A 
TAD BELOW PROJECTED LOWS FOR THIS MORNING AND CLOSE TO MOS 
GUIDANCE. ON WEDNESDAY... WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND BRING IN SOME 
PARTIAL CLEARING TO NORTHWEST...BUT KEEP CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. EVEN 
PARTIAL JUNE SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET US BACK 
INTO MID TO UPPER 60S.

NEXT UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA...SLIDES DOWN INTO NORTHERN 
PLAINS BY THURSDAY WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND RETURN MOISTURE FLOW AT 
H85 DEVELOPING BY EVENING INTO EASTERN IA. THIS WILL BE NEXT CHANCE 
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AT SURFACE IN 
ADVANCE OF SYSTEM WILL BE ENOUGH TO BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO LOWER 70S 
ON THURSDAY. SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY FOR GOOD CHANCE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS AND KEPT POPS INTO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME TIMING 
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. LATEST GFS TRENDING TOWARD CANADIAN WITH 
YET ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY AND WILL INTRODUCE 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO 
TEMPERATURES OVER WEEKEND. 
 
DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

SHEETS
$$