[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/2/2003 1:53:44 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 021852
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
150 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2003

SYNOPSIS-
RATHER COLD PCPN EVENT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE AREA 
TODAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CUTS OFF OVER IOWA AND 
ILLINOIS.  AS OF MID MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 60S 
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 
MID 40S.  DENSE CLOUD COVER AND SOME -RA HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN 
IOWA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. ALOFT...AT 12Z A STRONG SHORT WAVE STRETCHED 
FROM CENTRAL ND THROUGH OK...WITH 60DM FALLS. FURTHER 
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST 
BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH NORTHERN CA. A NARROW TONGUE OF MOISTURE 
FROM THE GULF CONNECTED TO AN 850MB LOW OVER EASTERN KS.  DRY AIR AT 
850MB WAS FOUND THROUGHOUT THE GREAT LAKES.

FORECAST-
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY 
SATURATE THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES MAY HAVE 
TO WAIT TILL EARLY EVENING.  EITHER WAY...CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LIGHT 
RAIN ARE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FWC GUIDANCE 
WITH LOWS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS ALL 
OF THE AREA UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN.  

CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY 
TUESDAY...AS MODELS HAVE DECIDEDLY SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER 
LOW INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE PHASING 
OF THE WESTERN SHORT WAVE TROF MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS WITH THE 
MAIN TROF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GFS IS QUITE SLOW WITH 
DECAYING CUT OFF LOW. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE THE MOST REASONABLE 
SOLUTION...AS IT MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS EAST THROUGH MID DAY 
WEDNESDAY.  WILL INCLUDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY/TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON...AND GO DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO WEDNESDAY NOON.  WILL 
HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TUESDAY AND UPPER 60S 
WEDNESDAY UNDER CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST FLOW.  

UPPER AND SURFACE FLOW BACKS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM 
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  DECENT CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ETA 
WITH BRINGING IN A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS 
WELL AS REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES. LEFT REMAINDER OF EXTENDED DRY 
TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING FORECAST WHICH IS RATHER CLOSE TO MEX 
GUIDANCE.

THANKS FOR ISC COORDINATION EVERYONE!

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

ERVIN