[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 2/10/03 1:00:48 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 101908
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
105 PM CST MON FEB 10 2003

.OVERVIEW...COLD ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO REGION AT 18Z ON NW WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN SD.  UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE NOTED IN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOME SNOW NOW DEVELOPING IN SC NE/KS.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS HEIGHT RISES AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND UPPER FLOW TO PUSH MOST OF THIS
ENERGY SOUTH OF OUR REGION. ANOTHER JET MAX ON SHORT WAVE DIVING
SOUTH OUT OF NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA.  AWIPS DISTANCE TIME FEATURE
SUGGEST SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN 1/3 AREA BETWEEN 21
AND 23Z FROM CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM.

...PRECIPITATION QUESTION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH WARM UP
AND THEN NEXT SHORT WAVE NEAR TERM ISSUE...LATE WEEK MARGINAL SYSTEM
MEDIUM RANGE QUESTION STILL UNCERTAIN...

.DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...TEMPS FALLING IN LINE WITH MODEL TRENDS
ADJUSTING FOR NORMAL MODEL BIASES OF SFC TEMPS.  THUS LOWS TONIGHT
EARLY WITH RISING TEMPS LATE AS CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVE IN...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH SECTIONS.  LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE SUGGEST
SCALING AMOUNTS DOWN SOUTH TO AN INCH OR LESS.  PERSISTENCE SUPPORTS
FLURRY AND CHANCE LIGHT SNOW WORDING AGAIN REST OF AREA. THEN GOOD
WARMUP ON SW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY WITH TEMPS 1-2 CATEGORIES
ABOVE GUIDANCE.  THEN...MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT ON MORE IMPRESSIVE SHORT
WAVE TUESDAY EVENING THAT AFFECTS NORTHERN 1/3.  FORCING WILL GO HIGH
END OF CHANCE NORTH FOR NOW.  THEN ANOTHER COOL DOWN LIKE TODAY WITH
TEMPS FALLING ON BRISK NW WINDS.  QUIET WX TIL THURSDAY EVENING WITH
NEXT HIGH OVERHEAD AS DRY AND COLD NW UPPER FLOW REGIME CONTINUES.

.EXTENDED (FRI-MON)...CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY SUPPORTED BY
ALL MODELS YET CONSISTENT NW FLOW TO PUSH FORCING AND THUS HEAVIEST
AND MOST WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS MAINLY SOUTH OF AREA.  SEE LITTLE CHANGE
NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE...KEEPING CHANGE POPS ON FRIDAY.
MAY UPGRADE FAR SOUTH AREAS TO LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH R-S- MIX
WORDING WITH LIGHT OR LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

NICHOLS