[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 2/9/03 3:47:07 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 090955
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
340 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2003

A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.  FORECAST PROBLEMS 
CENTER ON RAPID SUCCESSION OF FRONTS AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE 
WEEK.

TODAY WEAK WAA WILL SET UP BY AFTERNOON.  ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW 
PRECIP OVER NW THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS EAST INTO IA.  
RADAR TREND SUPPORTS THIS SOLUTION.  BEST LIFT WITH FROPA TONIGHT.  
HAVE REDUCED AFTERNOON POPS TO CHANCE AS MEASURABLE SNOW SHOULD HOLD 
OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.  WITH SPEED OF SYSTEM...LACK OF MOISTURE...AND 
WEAK DYNAMICS...SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH.

A BRIEF LULL MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER WAVE MONDAY NIGHT.  ALL MODELS 
BRING A SURFACE LOW OF VARYING STRENGTH ACROSS NORTHERN MO MONDAY 
NIGHT.  GFS IS STRONGEST WITH A CLOSED LOW...WHILE ECMWF...ETA...AND 
NGM DEPICT AN OPEN WAVE.  AGAIN THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST AND MOISTURE 
STARVED...SO WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS BUT KEEP AMOUNTS DOWN.  

SURFACE RIDGE CROSS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONG 
WAA SETTING UP THURSDAY.  DUE TO STRENGTH OF WAA AND UNCERTAINTY IN 
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL ADJUST FRIDAY'S PRECIP TYPE TO 
RAIN OR SNOW.


.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

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