[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 2/6/03 4:54:41 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 061103
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
503 AM CST THU FEB 6 2003

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS MASSIVE POSITIVE TILT TROF AT
500MB FROM QUEBEC THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.  AT 300MB A 130KT JET EXTENDS FROM DVN TO NYC...WITH A
SECOND 130KT JET FROM ELP TO JUST SOUTH OF OKC. AT THE SURFACE A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1019MB LOW NEAR MKE TO JUST EAST
OF DUBUQUE TO THE QUAD CITIES.  THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH COUPLING
BETWEEN THE TWO JETS...IS PRODUCING SCATTERED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
FROM KANSAS TO THROUGH MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
WITH SNOW EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS MACOMB.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS A COLD FRONT IN THE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  THE MODELS HAVE YET TO COME INTO
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE.  PRIMARY SIGNAL FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
IS CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
SNOW ON SUNDAY.

THE MODELS AGREE ON THE COLD FRONT MOVING WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN ON A NORTHWEST WIND...AND
PRODUCING NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES TODAY.  THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
BE ON SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE ETA...UK...AND EUROPEAN...WITH THE
AVN SLOWER WITH SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.  EITHER WAY TROFING
SEEMS TO LINGER IN THE AREA SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY...POSSIBLY INTO
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW
BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AND CONTINUES THRU WEDNESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST...WITH ONLY MINOR TEMPERATURE
CHANGES.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA