[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 2/5/03 2:37:27 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 052047
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
245 PM CST WED FEB 5 2003

BROAD TROF INPLACE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH SHARP RIDGE LOCATED
FROM THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH WRN CANADA.  125KT-150KT H3 JET 
STRETCHES FROM NORHTERN MO INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. 18Z SURFACE 
ANALYSIS HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND COLD 
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW COVERS MOST 
OF SOUTHERN MN AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MN.  
SURFACE LOW WAS ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MN SOUTH 
INTO NORTHERN NE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING S/W ENERGY OUT OF CENTRAL CA 
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN INTENSIFYING TROF DROPPING OUT OF CANADA.  THESE 
TWO SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SOUTH OF CWA 
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  SRN COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE 
OF THE SNOWFALL AND WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  
NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS THE -SN MOVING THROUGH SRN MN AND EXTREME 
NORTHEASTERN IA THIS AFTERNOON.  GFS OMEGA FIELDS SUGGEST THAT -SN 
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS SOUTHERN WI BY THIS EVENING.  CURRENT 
88D TRENDS SUPPORT THIS WITH BEST REFLECTIVITIES OVER NERN IA MOVING 
E.  TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY AS COLD FRONT STAYS NW OF CWA MOST 
OF NIGHT THEN ACCELARATES SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES 
ACROSS SRN WI.  BELIEVE TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT UNDER 
OVERCAST SKIES AND IN SWLY SURFACE FLOW. IT LOOKS LIKE MINS MAY 
ACTUALLY OCCUR AFTER 12Z IN MOST AREAS.  STRONG CAA AND CLOUD COVER 
ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM CHANGING MUCH DURING THE DAY AND 
WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY A 5 DEGREE WARMUP.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES 
SOUTH THROUGH MID MISSISIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS PLACES 
RIDGE OVER CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW COVER...CLEAR SKIES AND DE-COUPLING WINDS SUPPORT COLDER 
MAV MINS.  STRONG RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY 
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.  LOOKS LIKE MINS 
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE A GOOD WARMUP SATURDAY IN 
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND WILL GO AT OR JUST ABOVE MEX 
NUMBERS.  ALSO GFS PRINTING OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH SYSTEM AS IT 
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SO CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD.

EXTENDED (SUN THROUGH WED)
A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH DEEP H5 TROF EARLY IN THE 
WEEK WILL BRING SMALL THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY 
PER GOING FORECAST.  MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH 
MONDAY. MINS FOR MONDAY WILL BE BUMPED UP A CATEGORY WITH GFS 
DEPICTING A DECENT RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND SYSTEM TUESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION. GFS 
SHOWING H8 TEMPS AROUND -20C MOVING INTO NERN CWA TUESDAY.  WILL 
ADJUST TEMPS DOWN A NOTCH TUESDAY AND GO ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW MEX 
NUMBERS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH JUST SOUTH OF CWA. 


.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

DLF