[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/8/2003 4:37:54 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 080934
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
420 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2003

SFC RIDGE AXIS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING TOWARD THE U.P. OF MI
TODAY...WITH RESULTANT LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW GETTING SQUEEZED
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA AS EXPECTED. IMMEDIATE CONCERN SHOWN ON
CURRENT IR LOOP INDICATING THIS DEVELOPING FLOW ADVECTING IN STRATUS
OFF LK MI AND INLAND TOWARD THE CWA. FEEL PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL CWA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...
WITH BREAKS INCREASING AGAIN IN THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW SOME HEATING FOR INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. TEMPS STILL COULD BE
HELD DOWN ACRS THE EASTERN CWA WHICH ARE IMPACTED BY THIS STRATUS FOR
AWHILE...COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE CWA WHICH SHOULD AGAIN STRIVE
TOWARD THE MID 80S LOOKING AT UNCHANGED THERMAL PROFILES AND MIXING
POTENTIAL FROM PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. DIURNAL CU...PLUS STRATUS FROM THE
NORTHEAST MAY MAKE DAY MORE PARTLY CLOUDY ACRS THE REST OF THE CWA AS
OPPOSED TO ONGOING MOSTLY SUNNY.

PORTION OF VORT LOBE...NOW SEEN OVER THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER...WILL
GET SHEARED ON DOWN ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN CONTINUING NORTH
FLOW. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSTABLENESS DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON
...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY AROUND 80/LOW 80S AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATES...COULD BE SOME MORE SPOTTY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION...EVEN IN AREAS WHERE LAKE STRATUS HAVE KEPT DOWN AMBIENT
TEMPS SOME(REMEMBER CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 80). EASTERN CWA SHOULD
BE MORE AT RISK WITH ADDED INGREDIENT OF POTENTIAL LAKE FRONT/TROUGH
AND SOME SFC CONVERGENCE PUSHING WESTWARD INTO THE AREA AS DAY
PROGRESSES. ETA/META SEEMS TO HANDLE DEVELOPING MESOSCALE FEATURES
WELL...BUT KEEPS CWA DRY...WHILE NGM DEVELOPS UP A LINE OF AFTERNOON
PRECIP ACRS NORTHWEST IL AND INTO SOUTHWEST WI. WITH FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A CONTINUATION OF AN UNSTABLE PROFILE DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON IN VCNTY OF THE INCOMING BOUNDARY...WILL SIDE WITH THE NGM
AND ADD LOW POPS ACRS THE EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW A WARM WEDGE IN THE H7-H6 MB LAYER DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON
THAT COULD INHIBIT MUCH ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL THOUGH. EXPECT CLEARING
TONIGHT WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UPPER RIDGING FINALLY LEANS EASTWARD ENOUGH ACRS THE REGION FOR A
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S SAT AFTERNOON.

RIDGE RIDING VORTS MAY DUMP DOWN AND BRING A CHANCE OF A MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION THREAT BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT ACRS THE
NORTHWEST...BUT LOOKING AT LATEST UKMET AND EURO...ONGOING DRY
FORECAST MAY STILL BE THE WAY TO GO.


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

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