[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/7/2003 3:16:16 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 072013
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
313 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2003

DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS FINALLY TAKEN OFF ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...ALBEIT NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS EXPECTED. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING AND THEN END. MODELS
BUILD RIDGE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST SO EXPECT NO PRECIP IN THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. DIURNAL CLOUDS TO SLOWLY BECOME LESS IN
COVERAGE AS WELL.

SUN/MON IS THE QUESTION MARK. AVN/MRF PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. UKMET SAYS NO AND ECMWF SAYS MAYBE. VERY LITTLE
FORCING/SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT NOTED WITH EXTENDED PART OF
ETA AND WITH AVN. THAT WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE DRY...BUT IF ANYTHING WOULD OCCUR IT
WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY MON MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS NOW
TRENDING TOWARD DEVELOPING A CUT OFF H5 LOW IN THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY IN THE TUE/THU TIME PERIOD THAT DRIFTS EAST. CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ON TUE LOOK SLIM AND HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED IT FROM GRIDS.
WED IS A POSSIBILITY AS THERE MAY BE A VORT MAX THAT ROTATES AROUND
THE H5 LOW...BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF