[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/1/2003 3:10:50 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 010807
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
307 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

HMMM....DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH AND THE END
RESULT IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION. PLENTY OF LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH IS APPARENT BY THE AMOUNT OF AC THAT DEVELOPED BUT
NOW THAT IS DISSIPATING OVER WESTERN IOWA.

ALL MODELS ROTATE VORT MAXES THROUGH THE REGION WITH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT...WHICH IS PRODUCING SOME LIFT. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT NOT
ALL THAT STRONG...WHICH COULD VERY WELL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THEREFORE WILL CUT POPS TO 20-30 RANGE WITH
BETTER POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY A QUESTION
MARK. HOWEVER BELIEVE CYCLONIC FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GET SOMETHING GOING IF MODEL VORT MAX IS REAL (IT IS NOT APPARENT
IN WV IMAGERY). THUS WILL GO WITH IDEA OF DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED ATTM.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF