[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 4/28/2003 4:39:33 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 280932
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
432 AM CDT MON APR 28 2003

ALL MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH AREA DURING THE
DAY BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE CWFA. FORCING IS WEAK AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING INCLUDING TSRA.  MY GUT TELLS ME
ISOLATED SHRA/SPRINKLES WILL BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...IF
THAT. WENT CLOSE TO WARMER FWC FOR MAXES FIGURING WE WILL SEE SOME
SUN THIS AFTERNOON. QUIET WX TONIGHT AS FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH A DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE (BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS) AND
BETTER THETA E/WAA/LLJ WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW A WEAK VORT MAX TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA ON TUESDAY.
AGAIN MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A
DRY ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOW LEVELS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT ANY
PRECIP WILL OCCUR...BUT VORT MAX AND SOME JET SUPPORT UPSTAIRS
MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GET A FEW DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP. TUESDAY
NIGHT FRONT BEGINS ITS JOURNEY BACK NORTH TOWARD THE CWFA.
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS RESPECTABLE AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRECIP ONCE
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. ONCE AGAIN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A DRY ATMOSPHERE FROM ABOUT 875 MB TO SURFACE...SO PRECIP
TO BE VERY LIGHT IF IT OCCURS AT ALL.

DIDN/T HAVE TIME TO PLAY WITH EXTENDED. ALL MODELS INDICATE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE WITH TIME TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ON WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL ONE BELIEVES...WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN EVENT. AVN IS SUGGESTING A
POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE CWFA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS OCCURS.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF