[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 4/3/2003 3:10:23 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 030906
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 AM CST THU APR 3 2003

COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COLD FRONT MOVED FURHTER 
SOUTH THAN 00Z RUNS INDICATED.  NE WINDS NOTED AS FAR SOUTH AS KAWG 
BY 08Z.  HAVE NOTICED WINDS WERE VEERING SOME NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY 
BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z AND MSAS ANALYSIS NOW SHOWING PRESSURE FALLS 
NORTH OF FRONT...SO APPEARS FRONT MAY BE STARTING ITS NORTHWARD TREK 
IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER NE. SPOTTY CONVECTION 
DEVELOPED AFTER 06Z OVER SW IA NW MO ON NOSE OF 50KT H8 JET.  AT 08Z 
ISOLATED TSRA NOTED MAINLY ALONG I35 FROM KDSM SOUTH.  BASED ON 
MOVEMENT...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING.

NUMEROUS NEAR TERM CONCERNS INCLUDING FRONT AND IMPACT ON TEMPS AS 
IT MOVES NORTH TODAY AND CONVECTION AND SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON 
AND THIS EVENING.  BASED ON STRONG EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF FRONT AND 
FRONTS MORE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT WILL ADJUST CURRENT FORECAST TO KEEP 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF MODELS POSITION...KEEPING ITS NORTHERN 
EXTENT NEAR THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.  WILL HAVE TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWN
OVER NORTHERN THIRD AS A RESULT.  MODELS SHOWING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS 
WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG BOUNDARY.  META/NGM TRACK 
A CLOSED LOW NEAR I80 THIS EVENING WHILE GFS FILLS LOW BEFORE IT 
REACHES EASTERN IA.  WILL LEAN TOWARD THE META'S SOLUTION.
TEMPS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 70S WITH 
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE POOLS NEAR THE FRONT.  META 
SUGGEST CAPES AROUND 1700 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z.
META SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT CAP IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON 
WITH CAP DETERIORATING BY 00Z.  STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE 
FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERTAKE AN RESIDUAL CAP EARLY THIS EVENING 
AND EXPECT A LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT OVER WESTERN 
CWA THEN SWEEP E/SE THROUGH CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  WILL NOT 
MENTION SEVERE IN THE ZFP AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS 
IN THE THE HWO.  

AFTER TONIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL BE A 
FOND MEMORY AS STRONG E/NE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER MID MS VALLEY AND FRONT 
STALLS SOUTH OF CWA.   MODELS ALL SUGGEST ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG 
THE FRONT FRIDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REGION.  
H8 TEMPS COLD ENOUGH IN THE NORTH BY LATE FRIDAY TO WARRANT 
MENTIONING SOME -SN.  BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND GFS/UKMET BOTH 
SUGGEST A STRONG SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S.  COLD AIR 
WILL BE IN PLACE...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW 
IN THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING.  FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH RN/SN WORDING
AND SEE IF SOME CONTINUITY DEVELOPS IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.  TEMPS 
WILL BE ADJUSTED DOWN THROUGH MONDAY.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$
DLF