[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 4/2/2003 7:22:22 PM

Wed, 02 Apr 2003 19:22:22 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 030120 AAA
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
720 PM CST WED APR 2 2003

...UPDATED ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY...

HMMMMM...BACKDOOR COLD OFF LAKE MICHIGAN STRONGER THAN AND FASTER
THAN MODELS.  WHERE HAVE WE SEEN THIS BEFORE?  ANYWAY WILL USE
NOWCAST TOOLS AND PLAN TO DROP LOWS 1-2 CATEGORIES AND UP WINDS AT
LEAST NORTHERN 2/3 CWFA.  EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY
EVEN SOUTH OF BURLINGTON BY SUNRISE. WILL ALSO ADD MORNING CLOUDS
NORTHERN LOCATIONS.   PROBABLY A 20-25 DEGREE RANGE FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW.

WILL NOT CHANGE POPS THURSDAY AS TYPE FORCING WE WILL GET TOMORROW
MODELS HAVE AS MUCH DIFFICULTY WITH AS THIS AS TONIGHT/S BACKDOOR
FRONT. CONCEPTUALLY...INCREASED BAROCLINICITY JUST INCREASES CHANCES.
ESPECIALLY SINCE WE HAD MODERATE CUMULUS ALONG THIS FRONT BETWEEN 22-
24Z (4-6 PM) ALONG HIGHWAY 20 WITH DEWPOINTS 7-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
WHAT WE SHOULD GET TOMORROW AND LESS FORCING THAN TOMORROW AS WELL.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

NICHOLS