[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 9/6/02 2:09:00 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 061914
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
210 PM CDT FRI SEP 6 2002

.OVERVIEW...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS REGION WITH LAST VESTIGES OF
MORNING CONVECTION NOW ALL BUT GONE.  ANALYSIS SUGGEST WEST COAST TROUGH
TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH MODERATE WAA AHEAD OF SYSTEM.  T.S. FAY IN
WESTERN GULF NEARLY STATIONARY.  SATELLITE SUPPORTS ANALYSIS OF FAIR
WEATHER OVER REGION IN THE NEAR TERM AHEAD OF TROUGH.

...WARMUP AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT NEAR TERM ISSUE AND THEN POPS AND COOL
DOWN WITH FRONT THE MEDIUM RANGE CHALLENGE...

.DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...ETA LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS STILL TOO COOL
AT NIGHT AND WARM IN DAY TO USE EXCEPT FOR TRENDS.  PERSISTENCE AND
TRAJECTORIES SUPPORT LOWS REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW FWC/MAV GUIDANCE WITH
LIGHT SE WINDS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HIGHER DEWPOINTS OF 3-5
DEGREES AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGEST PUTTING PATCHY FOG LATE WORDING.  HIGHS
NEAR MAV/FWC BLEND OR UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND HUMID WORDING TIL
FRONT PASSES.

.EXTENDED (MON-THU)...PRIOR MODEL MIX OF WEAK WAVE ON FRONT GONE AND
THUS ALLOWING SYSTEM TO PASS ~24 HRS EARLIER.  WILL MOVE FORECAST
COOLING AND POPS AHEAD BY ONE DAY AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUPPORT
CURRENT MID WEEK FORECAST TEMP COOL DOWN...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MEX/FMR
AHEAD OF FRONT AND 1-2 CATEGORIES BELOW ON TUE/WED.  SOME CHANCE OF POPS
WITH NEXT WAVE AND WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
MOISTURE FROM FAY STILL A POTENTIAL CONCERN THAT IF ENTRAINED AHEAD OF
WAVE COULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AMOUNTS WITH/AHEAD OF FROPA...THIS
PHASING QUESTION SHOULD BE CLARIFIED 24 HOURS OR SO.

COORDINATED WITH ILX...THANKS.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

NICHOLS