[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/12/02 3:46:56 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 122054 CCA
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED ADVISORY AREA...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
355 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2002

...CORRECTED ADVISORY AREA...

MODELS MORE OR LESS IN AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY THE AVN 
DEPICTING THE CLEARING IN NORTHWEST IOWA. RIDGE TO SLOWLY BUILD IN 
DURING THE NIGHT WITH BRISK CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM 
GETTING TOO FAR OUT OF HAND BUT STILL EXPECT FROST TO OCCUR. 
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR FROST TONIGHT. STRONG 
DOWNWARD MOTION DURING THE MORNING SHOULD KEEP SKIES FAIRLY CLEAR 
WITH COLD WX SC/CU DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MID DAY. RIDGE AXIS TO 
MOVE OVER CWFA SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW DEW POINTS/LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW 
TEMPS TO PLUNGE BEFORE RETURN FLOW STARTS. LIKELY TO SEE A KILLING 
FREEZE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. RETURN 
FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ON MONDAY TO ALLOW A WARM UP UNDER BREEZY 
CONDITIONS.

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. HARDLY ANY
FORCING WITH FRONT SO DRY FROPA OR AT BEST SPRINKLES EXPECTED. IN
EXTENDED WEDNESDAY/SATURDAY TO BE DRY. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE FLIPPED 
SOLUTIONS SINCE YESTERDAY SO PRECIP CHANCES THURS/FRI IN QUESTION. 
FOR NOW WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY GIVEN 
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE 
ALONG IT. IF WE DON/T SEE A KILLING FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT...WE WILL 
SEE IT TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING.

.DVN...FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT.
IA...IAZ053-054-064>068-076>078-087>089
IL...ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026
MO...NONE.

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