[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 10/12/02 2:26:12 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 121933
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
233 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2002

MODELS MORE OR LESS IN AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY THE AVN
DEPICTING THE CLEARING IN NORTHWEST IOWA. RIDGE TO SLOWLY BUILD IN
DURING THE NIGHT WITH BRISK CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
GETTING TOO FAR OUT OF HAND BUT STILL EXPECT FROST TO OCCUR. THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR FROST TONIGHT. STRONG DOWNWARD
MOTION DURING THE MORNING SHOULD KEEP SKIES FAIRLY CLEAR WITH COLD WX
SC/CU DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MID DAY. RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE OVER CWFA
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW DEW POINTS/LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE
BEFORE RETURN FLOW STARTS. LIKELY TO SEE A KILLING FREEZE ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
ON MONDAY TO ALLOW A WARM UP UNDER BREEZY CONDITIONS.

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. HARDLY ANY
FORCING WITH FRONT SO DRY FROPA OR AT BEST SPRINKLES EXPECTED. IN
EXTENDED WEDNESDAY/SATURDAY TO BE DRY. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE FLIPPED
SOLUTIONS SINCE YESTERDAY SO PRECIP CHANCES THURS/FRI IN QUESTION. FOR
NOW WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY GIVEN BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ALONG IT. IF
WE DON/T SEE A KILLING FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE IT TUESDAY
NIGHT/WED MORNING.

.DVN...FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT.
IA...IAZ053-054-064>068-076>078-087>089-098-099
IL...ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035
MO...MOZ009-010

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