[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/30/02 3:18:16 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 300931
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2002

TROP FOLD AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE RISE COUPLET WILL EXIT THE 
CWA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  SEVERAL REPORTS OF BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS 
AND GUSTS EXCEEDING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE 
PAST TWO HOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT.  
RADAR AND OBS INDICATE SCATTERED FLURRIES ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE WIND TODAY AND THE NEXT PRECIPITATION 
EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NGM SEEMS THE ODD MAN IN HANDLING THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL 
SYSTEM OVER THE REGION WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
OVERALL...ALTHOUGH THE AVN AND UKMET ARE A BIT COLDER THAN THE ETA 
TONIGHT.  WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING THIS MORNING...THOUGH 
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP BELOW CRITERIA BUT STILL REMAIN STRONG 
THROUGH THE DAY.  MORNING SUNSHINE MAY BE BRIEF IN MANY AREAS AS 
CYCLONIC FLOW...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUNSHINE COMBINE TO 
KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES GOING.

DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS EXIST AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE NEXT 
SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE A CONCENSUS 
TOWARD A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT.  THE AVN AND UKMET ARE A BIT SLOWER 
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THAN THE ETA...BUT ALL MODELS AGREE IN 
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.DVN...
IA...WIND ADVISORY EASTERN IOWA THIS MORNING. 
IL...WIND ADVISORY  NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI THIS MORNING.

WOLF