[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/26/02 2:31:30 AM

Tue, 26 Nov 2002 02:31:31 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 260844
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
244 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2002

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS A 120KT JET OVER CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...WITH A SECONDARY 100KT JET OVER SOUTH DAKOTA PLUNGING SOUTH.
AT 500MB A BROAD TROF IS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WEST COAST.  A SHARP SHORT WAVE IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.  AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 500MB WAVE...IS ALSO IN EASTERN NEBRASKA.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS IN SHORT TERM WITH THE PLAINS
SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU WEDNESDAY...WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND TODAY'S WAVE...BUT WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
THURSDAY THRU MONDAY.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE ON A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  THE 500H AXIS
MOVES OVER DVN AROUND 19Z...WITH PVA THRU 12Z NORTHWEST AND 19Z
SOUTHEAST.  AT THE SURFACE THE NEBRASKA LOW MOVES VERY QUICKLY
ACROSS MISSOURI THIS MORNING...INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON.  DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG THRU 18Z WEST AND 19Z OR 20Z
EAST...WITH STRONG VV'S AND 300MB DIVERGENCE.  MOISTURE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LACKING AT LOW LEVELS...AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY BE TOO
COLD FOR OPTIMUM DENDRITIC FORMATION.  BEST GUESS IS THAT A 1 TO
2 INCH BAND WILL BE POSSIBLE 25 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
FAIRFIELD TO MOUNT PLEASANT TO MONMOUTH TO KEWANEE TO PRINCETON...
MAINLY THIS MORNING.

WILL KEEP PRETTY MUCH WITH CURRENT FORECAST.  MAY LOWER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A TOUCH FOR TODAY SOME AREAS.  ALSO MAY RAISE TEMPS A HALF
NOTCH IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 PER NEW MEX.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

REA