[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/6/02 1:48:29 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 060759
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
155 AM CST WED NOV 6 2002

.OVERVIEW...UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST WITH CLEARING TO PASS ACROSS
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 14 AND 20 Z.  RIDGING TO MOVE IN FOR QUIET
WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  WEAK SHORT WAVE IN UPPER JET TO
PASS NORTH WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

...CLEARING TODAY AND TEMPS NEAR TERM ISSUE...THEN NEXT SERIES OF
STORMS THE MID TERM ISSUE...

.DIAGNOSIS AND DAY 1-3...ETA HANDLING CLEARING BEST WITH MINOR INPUTS
FROM NOWCAST TOOLS AS MENTIONED ABOVE.  THEN FAIR WEATHER FOR NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH MODERATING TEMPS AND STRONG WAA BY FRIDAY.  WILL PUSH
WINDS UP AND TEMPS A TAD MORE THEN WITH NEAR WINDY CONDITIONS.  WILL
LEAVE WINDY WORDING FOR DAY SHIFT TO CONSIDER AS BEST GUESS ON LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND GRADIENT IS 15 TO 25 WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH
DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE...CURRENT TEMPS OK WITH JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TIL FRIDAY.

EXTENDED (SAT-TUE)...MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM(S)
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STILL SOME VARIANCE ON
LOCATION AND PHASING OF ENERGY FOR POPS.  OVERALL REGIME STILL
SUGGESTS SEASONABLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF QPF WITH SYSTEM(S).  ALSO QUITE
WARM TEMPS WITH COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT AMOUNT AND INTENSITY
QUITE DIFFERENT ON ALL MODELS BASED ON STORM SYSTEMS TRACK AND
INTENSITY. LATEST AVN-GFS IS WETTER THAN LAST NIGHT AND SEE NO REASON
FOR THIS TREND NOT TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS AS
RESOLUTION CAPTURES MORE FEATURES AND PHASING WITH KEEPING LIKELY
POPS FOR NOW MOST REASONABLE COURSE.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

NICHOLS