[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/5/02 2:41:18 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 052051
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
251 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2002

MODELS ARE DOING BETTER TODAY BUT STILL HAVE INITIALIZED SYSTEMS A
LITTLE WEAK. MAIN FORCING NOW EAST OF THE CWFA. LOW CLOUDS AND
NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD MOTION POINTS TO DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES
THIS EVENING. SATELLITE TRENDS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUDS
HARD PRESSED TO EXIT CWFA BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER DOWNWARD MOTION
BECOMES STRONGER DURING THE NIGHT SO CLOUDS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE. QUIET WX THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT
WITH EXCEPTION OF WEAK UPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO COME THROUGH. MODELS
BRING IN LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE HARDLY ANY MOISTURE. ADDITIONALLY LIFT IS NEUTRAL
TO ONLY WEAK UPWARD. THUS EXPECT THIS TO BE ONLY A PASSAGE OF
CLOUDS WITH SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED NIGHT BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES/LIGHT WINDS. UKMET SUGGESTS 20S ACROSS CWFA WED
NIGHT. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOWLY GET COLDER SO WILL LOWER
TEMPS WED NIGHT.

NICE WARM UP TO DEVELOP THU/FRI TIME PERIOD AS A LLJ DEVELOPS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES STRONGER WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER
TO JUST BELOW NORMAL THURS WITH A MILD THURS NIGHT. FRI LAPSE RATES
BECOME VERY STEEP WHICH WILL ALLOW 30-40 KT LLJ TO MIX DOWN DURING
THE DAY. SHOULD SEE 20-30 WITH NO PROBLEM FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN PROGGED. SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS TO COME IN AND AFFECT CWFA OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING
INTO MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME TSRA ON SUNDAY WITH
STRONG SYSTEM. TUES LOOKS TO BE DRY AS NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
SOUTH OF CWFA.

COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...ILX...AND STL.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

86