[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/2/02 1:45:48 AM

Sat, 02 Nov 2002 01:45:48 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 020755
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
155 AM CST SAT NOV 2 2002

.OVERVIEW...UPPER LOW AT 06Z LOCATED NEAR SLC PRODUCING MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  UPPER
ANALYSIS SHOWS SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO
PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE.  UPPER
LOW BEGINNING TO OPEN UP AND SHEAR EAST BASED ON UPPER ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE.  LATEST RADARS SHOW VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH SYSTEM DUE
TO MARGINAL MOISTURE AND FORCING.

...INCREASING CLOUDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN POPS
SUNDAY AS SYSTEM PASSES EAST MAIN CHALLENGE THIS CYCLE...

.DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...NGM AND AVN HANDLE PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE
BEST WITH ETA TOO QUICK AT 06Z.  THIS SUPPORTS SLOWING LOW CLOUDS INTO
AREA AS SFC HIGH MOVES EAST.  TODAY...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3 AREA BY PM.  FOR HIGHS... WILL GO
ON LOW SIDE OF BLEND DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND SFC RIDGE LIMITING
MIXING.  TONIGHT...AS SKIES BECOME CLOUDY...LOW TEMPS A CHALLENGE
WITH MINS MANY PLACES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  LIMITED FORCING PRECLUDES
HOLDING POPS OFF TIL SUNDAY.  WILL TREND MIN TEMPS ON LOW SIDE EAST
OF RIVER AND NEAR TO ABOVE GUIDANCE IN WESTERN AREAS DUE TO LOWER AND
MORE CLOUDS.  SUNDAY...WITH PHASING SHEARING UPPER LOW WITH NEXT
SHORT WAVE AND POOLING LOW MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT WILL SEE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WILL GO WITH ETA BL TEMPS WHICH SUGGEST SOME
WET SNOW MIXED POSSIBLE ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN QUIET MONDAY.  TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW CLOSE TO BLEND.

.EXTENDED (TUE-FRI)...BROAD DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK
SURFACE FRONT STILL SUPPORTS KEEPING CHANCE POPS OF COLD RAIN.
THEN...QUIET PATTERN AND WARMING TREND INTO FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
REGIME SETS UP.   THIS WELL CAPTURED IN CURRENT PACKAGE.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

NICHOLS