[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 11/1/02 2:02:57 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 012012
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
211 PM CST FRI NOV 1 2002

QUIET WX OVER REGION TODAY WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
N CNTRL KS/S CNTRL NE THIS AFTERNOON.  UA DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH BLOCKING PATTERN STILL IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND BLOCKING PATTERN OUT WEST DETERIORATES.  AS CUTOFF LOW OVER ID
EJECTS EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES MATERIALIZE.
AVN IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
PLAINS THAN THE ETA. THE FASTER AVN LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...
SINCE SYSTEM WILL BE MERGING WITH STRONG NW FLOW OVER THE MID WEST.

TONIGHT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WIND.  THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL STAY TO THE SOUTHWEST KEEPING CWA IN STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP AND EXPECT THIS WILL
KEEP MINS TONIGHT NEAR LAST NIGHTS READINGS.  MID/HI CLOUDS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH ERN MN/WI COULD BRUSH THE NE COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT.  AVN RH FIELDS SUGGESTING THIS SCENARIO AND WILL KEEP TEMPS
A LITTLE WARMER IN NW IL.  QUIET WX TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
SUN MOST OF THE DAY.   TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NORTHERN
ROCKIES SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS.  LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR
PCPN SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE MODELS SHOW BEST
FORCING.  WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY.  DUE TO TIMING
ISSUES WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BELIEVE
PCPN SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE
0 TO -2C RANGE AND SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FORCING...ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDER AIR...
WILL BE WEAK.

EXTENDED(TUES THRU FRI)
NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN LONG RANGE MODELS FOR
NEXT WEEK.  NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION MOST OF THE WEEK
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.  S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY  WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT PCPN.  MARGINAL 850 TEMPS AND TIMING SUGGEST PCPN SHOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN.  UPPER AIR PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY
AS ENERGY MOVES IN OFF THE PACIFIC UNDERCUTING WRN NOAM RIDGE.
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVER REGION IN RESPONSE STRONG SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  GFS ALSO SUGGESTING SOME
-RA IN WAA ZOME...HOWEVER WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE LOCKED IN
ACROSS SE/S CENTRAL U.S. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.  AS A RESULT...
WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.