[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/28/02 2:22:35 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 280720
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
220 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2002

A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT IN PLACE...AND DEVELOPING.  250
MB ANALYSIS SHOWERS JET ENERGY WELL NORTH OF FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING INTO AND ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  PRESSURE RISES
OCCURRING UPSTREAM OF THE WEAK TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES WHICH
INDICATES THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
AND MSAS DATA SHOW WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS.  I CANT
REMEMBER THE LAST TIME MSAS DATA SHOWED FOUR STATES WITH CALM WINDS.
SURFACE FRONT STILL LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. RING OF FIRE THUNDERSTORMS
BRING NEW MEANING WHEN ACTUAL FOREST FIRE SMOKE FOLLOWS THIS PATTERN
AND MAKES A LONG TRIP INTO CANADA...THEN BACK SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST.
 THIS SMOKE HAD AN IMPACT ON THE SUNSET YESTERDAY WITH A BLOCKED OUT
SUN AT A VERY UNUSUAL HIGH ANGLE.

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL DEAL PRIMARILY WITH
TEMPERATURES.  MAY HAVE TO PLAY AROUND WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE DUE
TO HAZE AND SMOKE.  AT THIS TIME THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS FREE OF
PRECIPITATION.

MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE LARGE RIDGE CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL
CANADA AND ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITH IT...AND BRING WARMER TEMPS
WITH IT. THE AVN APPEARS TO AGREE SOMEWHAT WITH THE ECMWF IN KEEPING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH...IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...AROUND THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME.  MAY HAVE TO KEEP EYE OUT FOR PRECIPITATION
CREEPING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AT THAT TIME AS MODELS INDICATE
HIGHER RH COMING NORTH ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI...BUT THIS
COUNTERED BY CONTINUED UPPER RIDGE AND WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING AT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE SHORT AND SWEET.
NO CHANGES.  THE CURRENT PACKAGE HAS A LOT OF HOT...VERY WARM...TYPE
WORDING ALONG WITH HUMID AND HAZY.  NO REASON TO CHANGE ANY OF THIS.
WE TOPPED OUT AROUND 80 NORTH AND IN THE MIDDLE 80S ELSEWHERE
YESTERDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +14 AND +16. TODAY SHOULD
SEE 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +16 AND +18...SO EVEN WITH SMOKE AND
HAZE...SHOULD HAVE NOT TROUBLE GETTING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S.

AS STATED ABOVE IN THE MODEL ASSESSMENT...WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE TUESDAY WEDNESDAY PART OF THE EXTENDED.  BUT AT THIS TIME...NOT
ENOUGH FORCING IN EVIDENCE TO MAKE ANY CHANGES.

IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

MEYER