[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/27/02 1:51:09 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 271849
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
145 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2002

.OVERVIEW...ANALYSIS SHOWS STAGNATE...SUMMER REGIME WITH JET WELL
DISPLACED TO NORTH WITH WEAK TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES MOVING SOUTHEAST.
NO SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TRIGGER OR BOUNDARIES NOTED WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME MOISTURE PROFILES.  SURFACE FEATURES SHOW WEAK SURFACE HIGH
OVER WESTERN IOWA SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.   APPEARS SOME AMOUNT OF
SMOKE IN HIGHER LEVELS FROM WESTERN FIRES HAS MADE INTO OUR REGION VIA
INDIRECT ROUTE THROUGH CANADA.  SMOKE APPEARS TO BE KEEPING TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO ONLY FILTERED SUNSHINE.

...TEMPS MAIN ISSUE AND WHEN AND IF TO BRING BACK IN CHANCE OF POPS...

.DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...QUIET WEATHER REGIME HANDLED WELL BY ALL
MODELS WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SLOW WARMUP WITH RETURN TO
HUMID TO VERY HUMID CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY.  VERY WEAK WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE FORCING DOES NOT SUPPORT OUR NORMAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...LATER SHIFT DO NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY SMALL DISTURBANCES
AND SEE IF FUTURE RUNS PICK UP ON THEM.  TEMPERATURES...WILL USE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS WHICH SUPPORT CLOSE TO BLEND OF FWC/MAV/MET WITH
FWC LIKELY TOO WARM AND FAST ON WARMUP BACK INTO 90S ON FRIDAY EXCEPT
NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF IOWA.  MAY SEE MORE SMOKY SKIES TOMORROW
BEFORE UPPER AIR WINDS SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FASHION.

.EXTENDED (MON-THU)...ALL MEDIUM MODELS SUGGEST A HIGHLY STAGNANT AND
POSSIBLY VERY PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH LITTLE TRIGGER TO SUPPORT MUCH STORM DEVELOPMENT. TROUGH ALONG BOTH
COASTS AND UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL US TO PRODUCE HAZY SKIES AND
POSSIBLY POOR AIR QUALITY WITH LIGHT WINDS.  WILL PUT IN HOT AND HAZY
WORDING TO SUGGEST THIS TREND.  THO SOME ISOLATED LATE PM AND EVENING
STORMS POSSIBLE...LACK OF TRIGGER AND WARM AIR ALOFT SUGGEST GOING DRY
TO MAINLY DRY ALL 7 DAYS...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION AND COUPLED WITH
TEMPS NOT GOOD FOR FARMERS.  TEMPS...TREND A CATEGORY ABOVE MEX/FMR FOR
HIGHS BASED ON RELIABLE MIX OF MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS.


IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

NICHOLS