[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/17/02 3:13:46 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 170814
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
314 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2002

UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WITH RIDGE OVER ROCKIES AND LOW JUST NE OF GREAT 
LAKES TO EVOLVE INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW AS JET PUSHING INTO NW CONUS 
FLATTENS THE RIDGE. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL TROUGHING 
ALONG LEE OF ROCKIES AND RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE TO CWFA BY 
MIDWEEK. SHORT TERM CHALLENGE IS TRYING TO PINPOINT RAIN CHANCES 
OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASS 
THROUGH OR JUST WEST OF FORECAST AREA.

MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES...WITH BIGGEST DIFFERENCES 
IN PLACEMENT OF LEE SURFACE LOW. WENT WITH ETA AND AVN BLEND. FIRST 
CHANCE IS WITH WAVE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY THAT WAS PRODUCING SHRA AND 
TSRA OVER SD EARLIER TONIGHT THAT WAS MOVING INTO SW MN. THIS WILL 
CROSS CWFA AROUND MIDDAY TODAY. MID LEVEL FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH 
FOR PRECIP...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AS 
SEEN ON 00Z DVN SOUNDING. MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO IA 
ZONES...AND THEN KEPT 30-40 POPS OVER ENTIRE AREA FOR AFTERNOON 
SHOWERS AND FEW TSRA. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EVENING... 
ESPECIALLY IN WEST CLOSER TO H85 MOISTURE AXIS. BETTER CHANCES 
ARRIVE LATER ON TUESDAY AS H85 WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SURFACE 
WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO IA/MN BORDER LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH 
BEST CHANCES FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO NORTH. ADJUSTED POPS TO 
MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 ON WEDNESDAY CLOSER TO SURFACE FRONT WITH AREAS 
TO SOUTH EXPECTED TO BE CAPPED FOR MUCH OF DAY IN WARM SECTOR. 

WENT CLOSER TO WARMER FWC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY. BEYOND...MADE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO EXTENDED TEMPERATURES.
  
.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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