[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/16/02 3:53:20 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 162054
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2002

UPPER RIDE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE U.S.  NEXT SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA.  LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH 70
TEMPERATURES AND 40 DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM WILL DEAL WITH NEXT
APPROACHING WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS IMPRESSIVE...AND THEN
THE NEXT WAVE TO COME DOWN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS CONTINUE A TREND OF DEAMPLIFICATION TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S....ESPECIALLY INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PART OF
THE FORECAST...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  ONCE AGAIN...THE LATEST AVN
IS TRYING TO BRING BACK SOME HIGHER AMPLITUDE AS A BROAD OPEN TROUGH
TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE WEST COAST AT THAT TIME.  SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO START TAKING SHAPE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN NORTH AND
CENTRAL...WITH OPEN GULF WHICH MAY BE OUR BEST THUNDERSTORM EVENT.
BEST ENERGY ALOFT IS PROGGED JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA.

FOR THE NEAR AND MID TERM...WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH ZONES BUT WILL DOWNPLAY THUNDER AND
SHOWERS IN OTHER LOCATIONS.  MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT BUT LAPSE RATES ARE JUST NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR THUNDER.
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE CHANCE WORDING FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED EVENTUALLY.  CURRENT PACKAGE WAS
CREATED USING MIX OF MAV AND FWC FOR TEMPERATURES AND NO REASON TO
CHANGE AT THIS TIME.

LOOKING AT THE EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PERIOD AND COULD EASILY GO
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY BUT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ON SUNDAY AS MRF ATTEMPTS TO BRING TOGETHER CONVERGENCE BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

MEYER