[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/28/02 10:49:10 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 281549
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1049 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2002

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS APPARENT IN THE PROFILER DATA AND THE 
RUC OVER CENTRAL IOWA.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING AHEAD OF 
THIS FEATURE.  THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES PLENTY OF 
INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVN SOUNDING.  THE 
TREND THIS MORNING HAS BEEN FOR THE CAP TO WEAKEN WITH ONLY MODEST 
SUNSHINE.  THUS...WILL UPDATE ZONES TO INCLUDE POPS IN ALL AREAS.  
WEAK WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO 
IGNITE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT THE MAIN SHOW MAY BE 
LATER TONIGHT.

REGARDING THE HEAT ADVISORY...CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT 
AND THUS MAX TEMPS.  THE FLIP SIDE IS THAT AREAS RECEIVING SUNSHINE 
TO THE WEST AND SOUTH HAVE MIXED OUT THE HIGHER DEW POINTS.  SO IN 
EITHER CASE CONDITIONS LOOK MARGINAL...BUT WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY 
GOING SINCE IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL.

.DVN...
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR EASTERN IOWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY AND
     TONIGHT.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WOLF