[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/20/02 4:10:05 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 200909 AAA
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
246 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2002

***NOTICE***
DUE TO COMPUTER PROBLEMS THE ZONE FORECAST WILL BE GREATLY DELAYED. 
IT IS HOPED TO HAVE THE ZONES OUT SHORTLY AFTER 5 AM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS TODAY REGARDING PRECIP AND OVERALL
FORCING WHEN COMPARED TO REGIONAL RADARS. FRONT IS SITTING ACROSS 
SOUTHERN CWFA WITH MODELS PROGGED TO PUSH IT BACK NORTH DURING THE 
DAY AND EVENING. MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR NOT HANDLING WAA PRECIP 
WELL. THEREFORE CANNOT SEE WHY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA 
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. AFTER THAT THE MESSAGE IS INTENSE 
HEAT. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN EARNEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES
SUNDAY. THIS TO BOOST TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY...LIKELY 
WARMER THAN WHAT MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE. ADDITIONALLY SHOULD SEE 
SOME COMPRESSIONABLE HEATING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG 
WITH SUNSHINE. H85 TEMPS TO BE 23-25 DEGREES WITH THERMAL AXIS OVER 
CWFA. COMPARING H85 TEMPS TO SURFACE TEMPS TODAY IN THE PLAINS THIS 
WOULD INDICATE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH NO PROBLEM...AND POSSIBLY 
CENTURY MARKS. DEW POINTS ALSO TO BE AROUND 70 OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS 
WELL PUTTING HEAT INDICES IN THE 105 TO 115 RANGE WITH NO PROBLEM. 
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL NOT GO WITH A HEAT 
WATCH ATTM BUT WILL HIT HARD IN ZONES.

STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. 
TSRA DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AND EXPECT STRONG/SVR STORMS FROM EXTREME 
INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAIN LIKELY AS WELL DUE TO PWS BEING 1.6 OR 
HIGHER.

MAV COOLER THAN FWC FOR PERIOD 1 BUT MINS ARE SIMILAR. MAV WARMER 
THAN FWC FOR PERIOD 3 AND THIS LOOKS MORE REASONABLE BUT MAY BE A 
LITTLE COOL. ADJUSTMENTS TO BE MADE AS WARRANTED.

COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...MKE...CHI...ILX...AND STL.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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