[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/20/02 2:47:01 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 200747
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
246 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2002

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS TODAY REGARDING PRECIP AND OVERALL
FORCING WHEN COMPARED TO REGIONAL RADARS. FRONT IS SITTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CWFA WITH MODELS PROGGED TO PUSH IT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY
AND EVENING. MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR NOT HANDLING WAA PRECIP WELL.
THEREFORE CANNOT SEE WHY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. AFTER THAT THE MESSAGE IS INTENSE HEAT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN EARNEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES
SUNDAY. THIS TO BOOST TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY...LIKELY
WARMER THAN WHAT MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE. ADDITIONALLY SHOULD SEE
SOME COMPRESSIONABLE HEATING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH SUNSHINE. H85 TEMPS TO BE 23-25 DEGREES WITH THERMAL AXIS OVER
CWFA. COMPARING H85 TEMPS TO SURFACE TEMPS TODAY IN THE PLAINS THIS
WOULD INDICATE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH NO PROBLEM...AND POSSIBLY
CENTURY MARKS. DEW POINTS ALSO TO BE AROUND 70 OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS
WELL PUTTING HEAT INDICES IN THE 105 TO 115 RANGE WITH NO PROBLEM. PER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL NOT GO WITH A HEAT WATCH
ATTM BUT WILL HIT HARD IN ZONES.

STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. TSRA
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AND EXPECT STRONG/SVR STORMS FROM EXTREME
INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAIN LIKELY AS WELL DUE TO PWS BEING 1.6 OR HIGHER.

MAV COOLER THAN FWC FOR PERIOD 1 BUT MINS ARE SIMILAR. MAV WARMER THAN
FWC FOR PERIOD 3 AND THIS LOOKS MORE REASONABLE BUT MAY BE A LITTLE
COOL. ADJUSTMENTS TO BE MADE AS WARRANTED.

COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...MKE...CHI...ILX...AND STL.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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